WNBA: Don’t underestimate Jonquel Jones’ impact on the New York Liberty

As the second half of the WNBA season begins, the New York Liberty are adding two former MVPs to their lineup.

The Liberty’s buzziest add is Emma Meesseman, who has chosen to take her talents to the defending champs over joining the Minnesota Lynx or Phoenix Mercury. Out of the WNBA since 2022, when she played for the Chicago Sky, Meesseman has only won three EuroLeague Women MVPs and two EuroBasket Women MVPs in the interim.

Yet, before Emma makes her entrance in the Big Apple, New York will benefit from the return of Jonquel Jones, who is expected to play when the Liberty host the Indiana Fever on Tuesday.

Among the excitement for Meesseman and what she will bring to the Liberty (a lot!), it’s important not to overlook what Jones’ return will mean to the team (even more!).

Underrated and unstoppable

Last week, The Athletic published the results from its anonymous player poll, which included the question, “Other than your own team, who will win the WNBA title?”

In response, one player said, “(New York) because of (Jonquel Jones). She remains one of the league’s most underrated players.”

That’s right.

When the reigning WNBA Finals MVP has been on the court, the Liberty have been unstoppable, on course to cruise to a second-straight championship. The defending champs started the season started the season 9-0, with JJ playing in eight of those victories. When New York finally lost their first game, Jones’ ankle injury was a significant reason why, as she exited after just nine minutes. She hasn’t played since, with the Liberty stumbling through a 6-5 record without her.

Because the Liberty’s performance was so outlandishly excellent during Jones’ minutes to start the season, it’s hard to imagine the team will be able to replicate such stellar play. But, they might. So, it’s worth re-emphasizing how good the Liberty were with JJ—and how good they could be with her (and Emma!) during the second half of the WNBA season.

JJ juices the Liberty offense

Jones’ traditional stats are not particularly stunning. A near double-double of 12.1 points and 9.6 are not out-of-this-world numbers, but they have had out-of-this-world impact because of when and how she accrues them.

First, Jones has averaged 22.9 minutes per game, her fewest since her rookie season. Per 36 minutes, Jones’ stats would rise to an MVP-like 19 points and 15 boards per game. That means her scoring frequency is the highest it’s been since she joined the Liberty three season ago, and that’s with her shooting percentage sitting a 47.5 percent, a still strong mark that, nonetheless, is the second lowest of her career.

Those points are so powerful, however, because a career-high 38.5 percent of her points have come from behind the arc. By taking a career-high 5.5 3s per game, she has intensified the threat of her 43.8 percent 3-point shot, stretching and scrambling the opposing defense so that the Liberty offense can operate with an ideally-spaced floor. Jones has also feasted in transition, with a career-high 14.7 percent of her points coming on fastbreaks. JJ on the break, like JJ behind the arc, often results in the kind of buckets that indicate that the Liberty offense is firing on all cylinders, creating easy points that can break the will of opposing defenses.

So, it’s no surprise that the Liberty offense churns out a 113.1 offensive rating, second only to the Phoenix Mercury’s offense during Kahleah Cooper’s limited minutes, when Jones is on the court.

She’s also the foundation of the Liberty defense

And yet, Jones arguably is more impactful on the other end of the floor. The Liberty defense has clamped up opponents, permitting a league-low 83.7 points per 100 possessions in JJ’s minutes.

That stoutness is not a product of her defensive playmaking, as her steals and blocks are below her career averages; she is swatting 1.2 shots and swiping 0.6 steals per game. But, that decreased playmaking has been replaced by an increased presence. Foremost, a presence on the glass. Her defensive rebounding percentage, as well as her overall rebounding percentage, exceed those of Angel Reese, with Jones grabbing a league-leading 28.2 percent of available defensive boards when she is in the game, in addition to 19.9 percent of all rebounds. Furthermore, her ability to defend the basket frees Breanna Stewart from rim protection duties. Stewie can deploy her length around the floor in a more disruptive manner, knowing JJ is back there to take care of any messes.

That’s why, among players who have played at least 200 minutes, ESPN Analytics’ net points per 80 possessions statistic, which estimates how much better a player is than an average player during 80 team possessions (which is about a 40-minute game), Jones is projected as 4.8 points better than the average player on defense, the best number in the league. While small sample size caveats apply, that JJ’s number is more than double the estimate for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Napheesa Collier captures her outlier defensive impact.

Critically, Jones has been able to have such an impact because she is fouling at a less frequent rate. JJ has avoided the foul trouble bugaboo, and the frustrations that come with it, that has bitten her in the past, thereby permitting her to play peak, unbothered basketball.

Once Meesseman suits up in seafoam, Jones’ advanced stats probably will not be as absurd, as New York will be able to more consistently sustain a higher quality of play when Jones is not on the court. That will be particularly true on offense.

Although a much more limited as a defender than Jones, Meesseman has the potential to take the Liberty offense to an even higher level. She’s not just capable of scoring around the basket, from the midrange and behind the arc, but she also will offer playmaking skills from the frontcourt that exceed the abilities of Jones and Stewart. And then there’s the tantalizing possibility of a jumbo frontline of Jones-Stewart-Meesseman, a triumvirate of size and skill that should cause nightmares for all opponents.

It’s gonna be scary hours in New York. But, don’t doubt that JJ is the piece that makes the Liberty so frighteningly good.