WNBA Draft Lottery: Who will land Paige Bueckers and Kiki Iriafen?

Where will Paige Bueckers begin her WNBA career? And which team might snag USC standout Kiki Iriafen?

The WNBA Draft Lottery, slated for Sunday, November 17th at 5pm ET, will begin to answer some of these questions.

The lottery teams — in order of odds for the No. 1 pick — are the Los Angeles Sparks, Dallas Wings, Chicago Sky, and Washington Mystics. The Wings also have a pick swap with the Sky, so if the Sky place higher in the lottery, the two teams will swap spots. Meanwhile, the Golden State Valkyries will automatically be penned in as the No. 5 pick, so they’ll just miss the lottery.

The college basketball season is just beginning, but with the WNBA Draft Lottery just a week away, here’s a way-too-early projection of who teams might select.

First, how does the WNBA draft lottery work?

The WNBA uses teams’ combined record from the past two seasons to establish lottery odds — so the four teams with the worst 2023-2024 regular season records will partake in Sunday’s lottery.

Over the past two seasons, the Sparks have a 22-55 record, and therefore have the best odds at No. 1 at 44.2%. The Wings and the Sky each have a combined 31-49 record, and thus have a a 22.7% chance at the No. 1 pick, while the Mystics have a 33-47 record, and a 10.4% chance. But, because of the pick swap between the Wings and the Sky, the Wings actually have higher odds for the No. 1 pick.

On Sunday — the day of the actual draft lottery — fourteen balls numbered 1-14 will be placed into a lottery machine and mixed, four balls will be drawn, and the team assigned that four-digit combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process will take place for the remaining lottery picks.

After the top 4, the remainder of the picks will be distributed as follows:

No. 5 — Golden State Valkyries

No. 6 — Washington Mystics (via Dream)

No. 7 — New York Liberty (via Mercury)

No. 8 — Indiana Fever

No. 9 — Seattle Storm

No. 10 — Chicago Sky (via Sun)

No. 11 — Minnesota Lynx

No. 12 — Phoenix Mercury (via Liberty)

The Las Vegas Aces and the Connecticut Sun are the only two teams without first-round picks in this year’s draft.

Which college basketball stars are likely to be lottery picks?

The college season is just beginning, so things could still shake out a number of ways. But, here’s an early projection of which stars might be picked in the lottery.

Paige Bueckers, University of Connecticut

Paige Bueckers is a near shoe-in for the No. 1 pick, provided that this season pans out as expected. The 6’0 point guard averaged 21.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4 assists last season, helping lead UConn to the Final Four despite her team dealing with a slew of injuries. She missed the 2022-23 season recovering from an ACL tear, but hasn’t missed a beat in her return from injury, and has been incredibly efficient throughout her three-year career. She was the first freshman ever to win the national player of the year award, earning the Naismith Trophy in 2021.

Bueckers shot 53.3% from the field — and 41.9% from three — in her three collegiate seasons. She’ll likely be a high-impactful WNBA guard regardless of where she ends up, as she can score at all three levels, handle the ball, and effectively defend.

2. Kiki Iriafen, University of Southern California

Kiki Iriafen had a tremendous junior season at Stanford, and is now paired up with JuJu Watkins in her senior season at USC. Iriafen, a 6’3 forward, is an athletic and high scoring forward who makes her own strong case as the No. 1 pick, though Bueckers currently seems to be the front-runner. Iriafen averaged 19.4 points and 11 rebounds at Stanford, and capped her year with several standout performances, including exploding for 41 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks to help Stanford to the Sweet 16 last season. Iriafen can score through contact and has a midrange jumper, but currently does not shoot threes. That’ll be one potential area of improvement for her as she gears up for a WNBA career.

3. Aneesah Morrow, LSU