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The 2025 WNBA Finals feature a desert duel that few would have predicted at the start of the season. The Las Vegas Aces are making their third WNBA Finals appearance in four years and eyeing a third title over that span. The Phoenix Mercury are back in the finals for the first time since 2021. They feature only two returning players from last year’s team, as the era of Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner has given way to a Big Three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper.
The Mercury and Aces met four times during the regular season, in which the Aces collected three wins — two as part of their 16-game winning streak before the playoffs. The Mercury’s lone win in June was when the Aces were without A’ja Wilson. Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season now, achieving a level of consistency that Las Vegas has not matched during the postseason.
See you Friday.
WNBA Finals | @YouTubeTV pic.twitter.com/BMWkd9TbuB
— WNBA (@WNBA) October 1, 2025
Both squads are led by a frontcourt MVP candidate and loaded with star power, including a trio of 2024 Olympians in the starting lineups. Although the 2025 WNBA Finals matchup would have been unexpected back in May, and even at the start of the playoffs, there is plenty of intrigue.
Who has the edge? We’re breaking down the finals and giving our predictions:
How does Las Vegas’ offense match up with Phoenix’s defense?
Las Vegas ORTG: 105.9 points per 100 possessions
Phoenix DRTG: 100.4
The Aces have the best player in the world in Wilson, and the Mercury don’t have a great answer for her one-on-one. Thomas and center Natasha Mack are a little too small to deal with Wilson, even if they have the strength. A great individual defender isn’t necessarily enough, as the Indiana Fever learned in their semifinals matchup with Las Vegas; even with Fever center Aliyah Boston doing yeoman’s work on Wilson, the four-time WNBA MVP still averaged 24 points and 9.4 rebounds. Phoenix was flexible with its matchups against Las Vegas in the regular season, as Thomas guarded everyone from guard Chelsea Gray to Wilson. The Mercury can even stash Thomas on Kierstan Bell and have her roam, though that’s more problematic when guards Jewell Loyd or Dana Evans are in the game. But if Wilson gets the ball in the middle of the floor, she can cleanly shoot over any Phoenix defender.
Four-time All-Star guard Jackie Young is coming off a strong series against the Fever (21.4 points and six assists per game), though she was less prolific against the Mercury defense during the regular season. Phoenix rookie guard Monique Akoa Makani is strong at the point of attack and navigates screens well, preventing Young from consistently getting a straight line to the rim. When Akoa Makani goes to the bench, she passes the assignment off to Copper, who Aces coach Becky Hammon called one of the best two-way guards in the league (alongside Young, of course). Young will get her points — it’s a matter of how efficient she is in the process. That makes this an important series for Gray. Phoenix’s first priority is to protect the paint, so that could leave the midrange open for Gray, where she excels.
Chelsea Gray in OT vs. Fever:
8 points.3-3 from the floor.1 incredible triple to beat the buzzer.
Aces claim their spot in the WNBA Finals!pic.twitter.com/asijuVGoF8
— NBA (@NBA) October 1, 2025
Aces forward NaLyssa Smith will have a tough matchup against Sabally, a player physical enough to challenge her in the paint. The Mercury weren’t a great defensive rebounding team during the regular season but have cleaned that up during the postseason; Smith’s most important offensive contribution could come on the glass to create extra possessions. The same goes for Loyd, who has been deadly crashing from the corners. Loyd is also shooting 38 percent on 3s in the postseason; she needs to make Phoenix pay for focusing on Wilson and Young, and balance out the production the Mercury will get from her former Storm teammate Sami Whitcomb.
How does Phoenix’s offense match up with Las Vegas’ defense?
Phoenix ORTG: 103.6
Las Vegas DRTG: 101.9
A natural messiness is likely when the Mercury are on offense because of all the cross-matching bound to occur. Phoenix, the No. 7 team in offensive rating this past season, relies heavily on its two unicorn forwards, Thomas and Sabally, to generate easy scores, while the Aces tend to have more success playing smaller lineups.
In past matchups, Las Vegas has thrown a number of different, often smaller, players at Sabally and Thomas. Gray and Young have spent numerous possessions guarding Sabally, practically daring the 6-foot-4 forward to beat them in the post. Sabally attempts only nine percent of her shots via post-ups, according to Synergy Sports. While she shoots 54.5 percent in such scenarios, she more often will look to score as a pick-and-roll ballhandler or as a spot-up shooter. Young and Gray might be undersized, but both are incredibly strong and have years of experience guarding bigger players. Putting one of them on Sabally raises another challenge: Will Sabally crash the offensive glass? She pulled in more than two offensive rebounds only six times all season. Maximizing Sabally will be integral to Phoenix’s offensive success. It should come as no surprise that Sabally scored her lowest point totals of the playoffs (nine against New York in Game 1 of the first round and 10 against Minnesota in Game 1) in the Mercury’s two playoff losses. The series might come down to how well Sabally, a three-time All-Star and former All-WNBA first-teamer, can exploit her size advantages.
Satou Sabally tonight 🔥
• 21 points• 6 rebounds• 3 assists• 6/11 FGpic.twitter.com/muEIQ6Q5FU
— Women’s Hoops Network (@WomensHoops_USA) September 29, 2025
Then there is Las Vegas’ challenging task of slowing down Thomas, Phoenix’s offensive engine. Opponents vary their pick-up points when guarding her — New York tended to sag well off of her, for instance, often not guarding her until she was inside the arc — but the Aces, in their August matchups, tended to stick to Thomas even while she surveyed the floor on the perimeter. Expect Wilson to be a primary defender on Thomas, though Hammon will also look to get whatever she can out of her other reserve bigs in spurts. Las Vegas sprinkled in some 2-3 zone as a change-up as well in past outings against Phoenix.
The Mercury rely on Thomas to create scoring opportunities in transition. They are fourth in fast-break points per game (10.8), with nearly 15 percent of their scoring in transition. When the Mercury aren’t scoring on the break, 3-point shooting is of the utmost importance. Only the Golden State Valkyries recorded a higher percentage of their points off 3-pointers this season than the Mercury, with more than nine of 10 Phoenix 3s coming via assisted baskets. What makes this particular series sub-section so intriguing is that the Aces have the WNBA’s second-best 3-point defense. Wilson’s shot-blocking might receive plenty of acclaim, but she is also excellent when closing out on spot-up shooters or guarding quicker guards in isolation.
Aces’ X-factor: Crunch-time execution
The Aces are a veteran team. They have five returners from their back-to-back title teams, including Wilson, Young and Gray, plus the same coach in Hammon. They are historically poised in late-game situations.
However, that has not been the case in these playoffs. After blowing out Seattle in the opener of the first round, Las Vegas blew a 12-point fourth-quarter lead in Game 2 and almost gave away Game 3 at home. Against Indiana, the Aces were more of a mixed bag: They had a good close in the third game but were poor down the stretch in Game 4. They then let the Fever claw back in Game 5 without star guard Kelsey Mitchell before eventually pulling away in overtime.
Meanwhile, the Mercury have been dynamite in the fourth quarter; they outscored Minnesota by a combined 38 points in the final period of their three wins. If these games go down to the wire, Phoenix’s execution has been more reliable.
Mercury’s X-factor: Bench production
The Mercury rely on their starters less than any other team in the WNBA, playing the starting five only 20 percent of the time. That’s not because their opening group isn’t successful (according to PBP Stats, their starters have a plus-13.4 net rating, which is second-best in the WNBA), but because they have such a capable bench. At any time, coach Nate Tibbetts might rely on key minutes from Whitcomb or DeWanna Bonner. Forward Kathryn Westbeld started 24 games for the Mercury this season and fared quite well before sliding to a bench role full-time.
The success of Whitcomb and Bonner, in particular, will be worth watching as the best-of-7 series progresses. Bonner scored 11 of her 13 points in Phoenix’s closeout Game 4 win over the Lynx in the fourth quarter, with her barrage of 3-pointers helping the Mercury advance. She’s a veteran presence, and her ability to generate late-clock offense is partly why Phoenix added her. Whitcomb has been aggressive all playoffs, having attempted at least seven shots in each of Phoenix’s seven postseason games. But the 37-year-old guard will look to bounce back from two sub-par games against the Aces in the regular season on Aug. 15 and Aug. 21, when she scored only six combined points and shot just 2 of 7.
Predictions
Sabreena Merchant: Mercury in six
It is very risky to pick a team without homecourt advantage that lost the regular-season series, but it felt like Phoenix was holding back some cards during those earlier matchups. The Mercury are clicking now. They are long, aggressive and versatile as well as deep enough to get through a seven-game series.
Ben Pickman: Mercury in six
The Aces have been playing with fire all postseason and were a possession away from being ousted in the two previous rounds. Though they have an edge in experience, the close margins with which they’ve advanced doesn’t exactly inspire confidence entering this series.
Phoenix enters the finals with two more days of rest than Las Vegas and will represent a significant stylistic shift. Thomas has been a force, and Sabally, when aggressive and hitting shots from the perimeter, is a difficult matchup. This might be this Mercury group’s first time on this stage, but they are playing their best now.
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Michael Hickey, Stephen Maturen, David Becker, Tim Heitman / Getty Images)
