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The 2025 WNBA Finals is set as the Phoenix Mercury take on the Las Vegas Aces, with Game 1 beginning Friday, Oct. 3, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. Phoenix took down Minnesota in four games while Vegas needed five to defeat Indiana. Those series were best-of-five, while the Finals is a best-of-seven battle for the first time ever.
If you’re a fan of WNBA betting and are interested in placing a wager on Friday’s Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 tilt, you should first see what WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have locked in for this game.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).
Here are Wetzel and Barzilai’s best bets for Phoenix vs. Las Vegas on Friday:
Mercury vs. Aces picks:
Mercury +3.5Fever vs. Aces: Over 159.5 points
Mercury +3.5
Phoenix and Las Vegas were essentially equal-caliber teams in the regular season, so just based on that alone, one would expect the Aces to be favored by about what home court is worth, which is closer to 2 or 2.5 than 3.5. But the Mercury have another advantage: rest.
Not only are they more rested in terms of days off after closing out their semifinal series two days before the Aces (who also took overtime in Game 5 to finish the job), but Phoenix also entered the playoffs as rested as anybody. Nate Tibbetts did an outstanding job keeping his stars fresh in the regular season – the Big 3 are playing basically 20 more combined minutes per game in the playoffs than they did in the regular season – and as a result, Phoenix has unlocked another level in postseason play. Look for a close game here, and take the full possession on the underdogs.
Mercury vs. Aces Over 159.5
This number has been on the rise after opening at 157.5, but I expect it to close in the 160s, so there is still some value. While the semifinals were low scoring, some of that on the Mercury side can be chalked up to facing the slow and defensive-minded Lynx.
A playoff series tends to get lower scoring as the series progresses as well – the higher the leverage, the more intense the game gets. After some defensive struggles later in the semis, we get a full reset for Game 1 of the first seven-game series in WNBA history. Expect a grinder or two later in the series, but this one should have enough offense to get to 160.
