WNBA free agency predictions: Kelsey Plum to the Storm, Satou Sabally to the Liberty

The WNBA offseason enters its second stage today. After 10 days of extending qualifying offers to retain the rights of their own free agents, teams are now allowed to negotiate with everyone. Contracts cannot officially be finalized until Feb. 1, but deals will be agreed upon before then, if not signed on the dotted line.

This is a unique offseason for the league as it prepares for a new collective bargaining agreement next year. With the WNBA exploding in popularity and a new TV deal bringing more revenue, the expectation is that salaries will jump in 2026 and most free agents will sign one-year contracts to get back onto the market next offseason. That constrains future planning teams can do this year.

“I’m going to sign another one-year, just so I can continue to have that flexibility going forward,” Breanna Stewart said during the WNBA Finals. “I have guided people to continue to make sure that they sign one-years or their contract is up following (the 2025 season).”

Stewart headlines another deep pool of free agents in the 2025 offseason, which features multiple former MVPs and multi-time All-Stars. Stewart has already announced that she will return to the New York Liberty, but there should be much more movement as other teams gear up to take down the defending champions.

Here are seven predictions for what will transpire over the WNBA offseason:

1. Satou Sabally will end up in New York

In previous years, the trade package for a first-team all-WNBA player would include multiple first-round picks. Skylar Diggins-Smith fetched three firsts on her way to Phoenix; DeWanner Bonner netted four from Connecticut; even the return for Allisha Gray, who was not yet an All-Star, was two first-rounders.

All of those players had multiple years on their contracts, however. (Four each for Diggins-Smith and Bonner, and two for Gray.) The Mercury also had to give up two firsts and former rookie of the year Michaela Onyenwere for Kahleah Copper, who had two years left on her extension. Sabally likely will sign only a one-year deal wherever she goes, diminishing her trade value.

That’s how New York gets into the mix. The Liberty have all of their firsts available, but they don’t have great value since the team projects to be very good in the next three years. However, New York has attractive veterans and players on rookie contracts. Could a package of Leonie Fiebich, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and a 2026 first get the job done? Rebekah Gardner and Kennedy Burke can fill in the leftover wing minutes, plus Marquesha Davis is still developing. The Liberty have to be confident that Sabally would want to stay in New York to play alongside her college teammate Sabrina Ionescu and her sister Nyara. An added bonusz: She was also born in New York!

Dallas has emphasized wanting to build a foundation for the future. Getting another first-rounder plus Fiebich with three years left on her rookie deal accomplishes that goal. Even if Laney-Hamilton doesn’t want to stay past 2025, she would be an invaluable role player as the Wings attempt to return to the postseason.

2. Emma Meesseman will sign in Phoenix

The Mercury went small at power forward in 2024, opting to prioritize spacing over size at that position. But that resulted in a pitiful rebounding effort and a below-average defense. With Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper still under contract and Brittney Griner projected to return to her only WNBA home, power forward is the Mercury’s No. 1 offseason need.

Several free-agent power forwards could be options, including Nneka Ogwumike, Alyssa Thomas and Sabally. The latter two were both cored, however, and Phoenix has limited assets to acquire either in a trade. Ogwumike would be an attractive target, but Emma Meesseman would be the better fit (especially since Ogwumike seemed to enjoy her time in Seattle), even if she’ll have to miss some midseason games for EuroBasket.

Meesseman has been out of the WNBA the last two seasons, but now that she is playing for Fenerbahçe, she will not be impacted by prioritization since the Turkish season ends in time. Meesseman’s playmaking in the post, career 37.1 percent 3-point shooting, and ability to defend both fours and fives makes her an ideal partner with Griner. It would take a hard sell to get Meesseman back in the U.S., but Phoenix can make it: The Mercury have one of the league’s best facilities, and Meesseman also has prior relationships with Cloud from Washington, Copper from Chicago, and Diana Taurasi and Griner from UMMC Ekaterinburg. With several high-basketball IQ veterans in Phoenix, it could be a comfortable environment for Meesseman.

MVP MVP MVP! 🔥

👉 @EmmaMeesseman #PotanınKraliçeleri#EuroLeagueWomen pic.twitter.com/gdhC86pHXi

— Fenerbahçe Opet (@fbkadinbasket) January 15, 2025

Kelsey Plum is the first member of the Aces’ core four to hit unrestricted free agency rather than sign an extension during this current era in Las Vegas. The indications are that Plum wants a fresh start, and that could come in Seattle, close to Plum’s college stomping grounds at Washington. Plum is beloved in the Pacific Northwest, and the Storm need a shooting guard now that Loyd asked out. Loyd has a natural connection to the Aces and her three Olympic teammates A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young — all of whom are represented by Klutch Sports.

Kelsey Plum has entered the building to a standing ovation

Jersey retirement for #10 coming up soon 💜 pic.twitter.com/JyBKmDUTDY

— WNBA (@WNBA) January 18, 2025

Las Vegas and Seattle are trying to be competitive in the short term, so it doesn’t make much sense to trade their All-Star/Olympian guards for draft assets or younger players. Better to get a like-for-like replacement — Plum has been a more efficient shooter, while Loyd is a more athletic finisher, but they’re similar enough — and trust that a good season will convince the new shooting guard to re-sign in 2026.

4. Indiana will strike out in free agency

In a sense, the Fever are the league’s most attractive free-agent destination. They play in front of packed crowds every night and feature the best young player in the game (Caitlin Clark) as well as Aliyah Boston. However, that also means anyone who signs in Indiana will play a relatively limited role, particularly if Kelsey Mitchell returns. Free agents aren’t typically looking to be the third option (at best).

There also isn’t a perfect fit for what the Fever require in this free agency class, unless they can trade for Sabally. She could toggle between playing the three and four, providing the necessary defense and spacing to surround Clark and Boston. It’s risky to trade for Sabally for one season, and talk around the league is that Indiana is not one of Sabally’s preferred markets. If I were in the Fever front office, I would still offer Lexie Hull, NaLyssa Smith and a pick for Sabally, but I would understand the reticence.

If Indiana can’t get Sabally, then Ogwumike, Brionna Jones and Natasha Howard are all less-than-ideal fits. Ogwumike is an excellent defender, but she has played at a more methodical pace for most of her career. Jones and Boston are somewhat duplicative, and Howard’s shooting has been theoretical since she left Seattle. The Fever have enough money to give out a one-year maximum contract, but the bet is that their targets will go elsewhere.

It is time to rebuild in Washington, so any useful veterans should be shipped off to playoff teams for whatever assets the Mystics can get in return. Stefanie Dolson is an obvious candidate for a trade, given Washington’s glut of young frontcourt players (Aaliyah Edwards, Emily Engstler, Sika Koné and Shakira Austin) who need playing time, not to mention any rookie bigs who might be selected at No. 4 or No. 6 in the upcoming draft. Minnesota would be a good landing spot for Dolson, as the Lynx value spacing at the five (Dolson made 46.5 percent of her 3s last season) and need a bulkier backup center. It would require parting ways with a younger player like Dorka Juhász or Jess Shepard, but Dolson would be worth it.

Originally, Sykes was the second veteran listed here, but she is tougher to trade because even a rebuilding team needs a viable lead guard, and the Mystics already lost Julie Vanloo in the expansion draft. Samuelson is easier to plug-and-play on a playoff team as a career 39.7 percent 3-point shooter and a feisty defender. Though her sister Katie Lou is constantly touted as the 3-and-D wing, it might be a more accurate moniker for Karlie Samuelson. Nearly every playoff team could use the elder Samuelson sister. Phoenix would be my favorite fit, and Atlanta could also desperately use a good shooter off the bench.

It is somewhat surprising that the Chicago Sky didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Chennedy Carter, who was downright dazzling for stretches of the 2024 season. Even if they didn’t want to keep her, they could have extracted some value from another team in a trade. Now, she’s an unrestricted free agent. The only logic to Chicago’s decision is that there wasn’t meaningful interest in Carter (even then, take a second-rounder!) and that the locker room drama was too much to tolerate.

GO DEEPER

How the Golden State Valkyries constructed their first WNBA roster

Despite her prodigious talent, Carter has now worn out her welcome in three franchises, and several others likely wouldn’t take the chance for fear of disrupting a winning culture. Golden State, however, needs to make a splash. With limited assets to trade for an established superstar, signing a free agent makes more sense for the Golden State Valkyries, and Carter fits right in. Their expansion draft selections are all capable role players, but none can take command of an offense like Carter. She is the scorer they need, not to mention a highlight machine who would generate interest. Worst-case scenario, if Carter acts out again, Golden State can simply cut her and look to the 2026 draft for its next chance at a star.

Alyssa Thomas spent much of 2024 (and has started 2025) not-so-subtly shading the amenities, or lack thereof, in Connecticut. Returning to the Sun after repeatedly falling short of a title, especially with a new unproven coach, seems unlikely.

Alyssa Thomas told @TheNextHoops that Mohegan has to do better in providing facilities for the Sun, who had to share a practice court the day before their first playoff game.

“To have to share your court with a two-year-olds birthday party, [it’s the] ultimate disrespect.” pic.twitter.com/FSIRAm1ooS

— Noa Dalzell 🏀 (@NoaDalzell) September 23, 2024

But the Sun control Thomas’ rights because of the core designation, and it’s hard to find a spot that has the assets to trade for Thomas and the cap space to also sign her fiancé DeWanna Bonner. DiJonai Carrington is also a restricted free agent, but given that offer sheets for RFAs have to be at least two seasons, Carrington is more likely to stay in Connecticut and become a free agent in 2026.

The Sun had the second-best net rating in the league last season, and now they have a full offseason to integrate Marina Mabrey. With the full starting lineup returning (give or take Bri Jones, who also seems like a good fit for the Valkyries), Connecticut has a high floor, and maybe that stability is enough to keep Thomas and Bonner before the fireworks in 2026.

Top 20 free agents

* Player is cored

** Player is restricted

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos of DeWanna Bonner, Satou Sabally and Kelsey Plum: David Sherman / NBAE Getty, Cooper Neill / NBAE Getty, Jeff Bottari / NBAE Getty)