WNBA: Is it all a Dream, or is Atlanta actually becoming a great team?

The Atlanta Dream are 5-2, sitting in fourth place in the WNBA standings after sweeping a two-game West Coast swing against the Los Angeles Sparks and Seattle Storm.

Atlanta’s statistical profile substantiates their record as more than just good fortune. On the season, they’ve outscored opponents by 37 total points, or 5.3 points per game, a mark that ranks third in the league. That success has been driven by their offense, as the Dream’s 85.9 points per game is second only the undefeated and defending champion New York Liberty, while their 106.9 offensive rating trails only that of the Liberty and likewise undefeated Minnesota Lynx.

The Dream aren’t a particularly efficient shooting team, but they are taking a lot of shots, averaging 69.7 overall attempts, with 30.7 of them being 3-point attempts, per game, both of which rank in the top three league wide. A surplus of offensive rebounds and a reduction of turnovers, with the team’s 10.6 o-boards and 13.6 turns both putting them at second-best in W, have contributed to the Dream’s extra scoring opportunities. Atlanta also is earning additional points at the line, as they are taking the second-most free throws per game in the league at 22.4.

Surely all of this offensive success—a stark contrast to last season’s league-worst offensive outfit—is due to Brittney Griner, the high-profile free agent addition who long has been one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the league?

No B(i)G difference—yet

Not quite. Appearing in five of Atlanta’s seven games due to a knee injury, Griner has underperformed in the season’s early going. Her 12.2 points per game on 44.6 percent shooting would both be career lows. Unfulfilled hopes for her 3-point shot have contributed to her inefficiency, as she taking more than a 3 per game but has only hit 16.7 percent of her efforts. She’s also committing a career-high 2.6 turnovers per game, while getting to the line a career-low 2.6 times per game.

So, the Dream are looking like an elite offense, yet BG is (for now) playing some of the worst offensive basketball of her career. What?

The Dream’s success, despite Griner’s struggles, is an encouraging sign.

Although it might take more time for BG to adjust to head coach Karl Smesko’s system, Atlanta’s other key pieces have almost instantly benefitted from the philosophies implemented by the reputed offensive wizard. That’s especially true for Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray. And that the Dream’s best and most important players are thriving, all while driving the team to wins, should excite Atlanta fans.

Rhylisha is being fully realized

Although certified All-Stars, Howard’s and Gray’s individual outputs had failed to translate into wins throughout much of their two seasons together in Atlanta. That’s changing—and quickly. And it’s a testament not just to Smesko and his systemic shifts, but also to the two players, who are proving their star bona fides by absorbing new strategies, adapting their games and exhibiting their elite abilities.

Gray has taken her game to another level. Fresh off a career-high 28 points in Atlanta’s win in Seattle, her career-best 21.4 points per game put her at fifth on the league’s scoring ladder. Those points have been propelled by her unabashed 3-point shooting—a clear emphasis from Smesko that she has embraced. She is launching the most triples of her career at 6.6 per game, and hitting almost 44 percent of them. But, the WNBA’s reigning 3-Point Contest queen is not just getting buckets. Gray is also dipping into her playmaking bag, tossing 4.6 assists per game, a mark which is another career high.

While Gray has emerged as more explosive scoring threat, Howard has complemented her already-present scoring prowess with enhanced all-round impact. In previous seasons, the quality of a Howard performance often was dependent on if her shot, particularly her 3-point shot, was falling. That’s not the case this year. Even as her shooting’s been cold to start the season, she has been contributing to winning basketball. In the absence of Jordin Canada, who suffered a knee injury just seconds into the Dream’s first preseason contest but is expected to return soon, Howard has assumed primary playmaking responsibilities, dishing out five assists per game. On the other end, she’s ramped up her activity, creating havoc as she swipes almost two steals per game while often assuming the toughest perimeter defensive assignment.

Yet, in spite of early inefficiency, the scoring is still there, evidenced by her career-best 17.6 points per game. (The 33 points she scored in the win over the Storm could also hint at the start of a Howard heater.) She is hoisting a league-leading 10.4 3s per game, cashing in an almost three per game despite her accuracy falling below 30 percent. That will improve. What’s most encouraging, and hopefully will continue, is Howard willingness to get all the way to the basket. Instead of settling for midrangers, she’s going to rim. A career-low 8.1 percent of her shots are coming from the midrange, while she’s earning 4.3 points per game in the paint, which would be a career high.

That’s more evidence of Smesko’s influence, as well as Howard’s near-instant actualization of it.

Enjoying the Breeze and the bench

The optimized offensive excellence of Gray and Howard is not the only thing going well for Atlanta.

While Griner’s integration in Atlanta has been uneven, Brionna Jones’ has been seamless. Although her traditional low-post game is not versatile, she is adaptable, as she proved when playing with various iterations of the Connecticut Sun and now with a very different Dream team. Playing a career-high 31.5 minutes per game, the Dream have outscored opponents by 46 points with her on the court, the best mark among the team’s starters. And that’s with Jones’ scoring efficiency sitting below her usually elite standard. No longer part of Connecticut’s more crowded frontcourt, she’s doing career-best work on the glass, pulling down 9.3 rebounds per game. Her persistence in the post is also earning her a career-high 4.7 free throws per game.

Naz Hillmon was on the fringes of Smesko’s rotation through the first few games, but Griner’s absence and subsequent struggles opened more minutes—and she grabbed them! After not seeing more than five minutes in the Dream’s first four games, Hillmon has played 29, 26 and 24 minutes in Atlanta’s past three victories, with the team outscoring opponents by 58 points when she is on the court. Hillmon is scoring efficiently, taking care of the boards and keeping the ball moving. In short, she’s doing all the little things that lead to wins.

Maya Caldwell and Nia Coffey also have emerged has key rotational pieces. In addition to providing her customary defensive jolt, Coffey is thus far enjoying a good shooting season, taking more than three 3s per game a making almost 40 percent of them. While Caldwell’s shooting is inconsistent, her ability to do a bit of everything has earned Smesko’s trust, which was most evident when she played a career-high 36 minutes in Atlanta’s win over the Connecticut Sun.

Yes, there are a scary amount of good things going on in Atlanta! But, it’s not perfect. The offense can still experience stagnant stretches and defensive breakdowns are too frequent. Sharpening those weakness, something the eventual acclimation of Griner could address, will be necessary if Atlanta is to advance from early-season surprise to solid playoff team to potential contender.

Seven games into the 2025 season, however, it’s hard not to start dreaming big!