WNBA: Liberty look to stay atop Commissioner’s Cup standings

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Tuesday night could be consequential in deciding which team will represent the Eastern Conference in the Commissioner Cup championship game on July 1.

The Indiana Fever and New York Liberty, both in action, are tied atop the standings with matching 2-0 records. The Fever currently sport a point differential of +36, with the Liberty besting them with a margin of +56. Wins by each team would have them on course for a Cup clash on Saturday, when the winner of the matchup between the two teams would likely be in position to claim East supremacy.

Indiana will aim for 3-0 in Cup play in Atlanta against the Dream at 7 p.m. ET, while Liberty host the Chicago Sky at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).

A battle of Howards in the ATL

The Fever’s Lexie Hull defends a drive by Rhyne Howard.

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Caitlin Clark will not return from the quad injury that has sidelined her for four games, with head coach Stephanie White sharing on Monday that the star sophomore guard is “ready to start ramping back up,” before emphasizing that the organization is “going to be smart” and “work her back in very intentionally.” Thus far, the Fever are 2-2 in Clark’s absence, recovering from losses to the Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun with two-straight wins over the Mystics and Sky.

Regardless of who is on the court, the Fever and Dream already have a significant degree of familiarity, as the they will be matching up for a third time this season, having split a back-to-back home-and-home set on May 20 and 22, when Atlanta won in Indiana before Indiana won in Atlanta.

The outcome of third contest could be determined by which Howard, Rhyne or Natasha, has the edge. In the previous two matchups, Rhyne was charged hounding Clark, exerting significant energy on the defensive end. Yet, she still had enough in the tank to drop 20 and 24 points, making at least three 3s and getting to the line for six free throws in each game. While Indiana still has plenty of offensive threats, headlined by Kelsey Mitchell, who could demand Howard’s defensive attention, she might have even more offensive juice in this one, especially now that Jordin Canada has returned from injury to assume primary ball-handling duties for the Dream.

On the other side, Natasha could again prove critical for the Fever. Her twitchy low-post scoring package and timely cuts caused trouble for Atlanta’s less mobile bigs in Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones in Indiana’s win. Her 26 points on 12-for-17 shooting was her highest-scoring and most-efficient offensive performance of the season.

It will be interesting to see if Dream head coach Karl Smesko opts for more Naz Hillmon to contain Howard. Hillmon, who is listed as questionable due to a hamstring injury, is an undersized yet persistent and active defender, and since the set against the Fever, she has become a more integral part of Atlanta’s rotation. She also forms one of the Dream’s best two-player pairings with Jones. The duo is Atlanta’s second-best two-player lineup, with the team outscoring opponents by 49 points during their 71 minutes together. They would seem well suited to match up with the Fever frontcourt of Howard and Aliyah Boston.

Whatever unfolds, this should be another close one. Win or lose, that could be a problem for the Fever….

Expect no trouble for New York

Connecticut Sun v New York Liberty — It’s all smiles for Natasha Cloud and the undefeated Liberty.

Because, in the context of the Commissioner’s Cup, point differential matters, and the Liberty are in prime position to pad their already comfortable point differential.

The last thing the Sky, fresh off enduring a brutal loss at the United Center to the Fever that was compounded by a season-ending ACL injury to Courtney Vandersloot, need is to become the Liberty’s latest victim. Yet, barring an unexpected burst of organized play, that’s what’s on deck for Chicago when they visit Brooklyn on Tuesday.

The Liberty already have downed the Sky once this season, drowning them with a single-game record 19 3-pointers. These teams occupy diametrically opposed places in the WNBA universe, as the Liberty rank at or near the top of the league in almost every impactful statistical category while the Sky sit at or near the bottom.

Even if Jonquel Jones, who is listed as questionable after exiting the Liberty’s recent win over the Mystics with an ankle injury, doesn’t play, New York should waltz to a 9-0 record, as well as a 3-0 mark and overflowing point differential in Commissioner’s Cup play.