WNBA: Mercury defense vs. Lynx offense will define semifinal series

“They haven’t seen us full strength.”

That’s what Alyssa Thomas intoned after the No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury punched their ticket to the WNBA semifinals, earning a best-of-five shot at the No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx. The festivities begin with Game 1 on Sunday at 5 p.m. ET in Minneapolis (ESPN).

The full-strength Mercury will aim to improve upon their 1-3 regular-season record against a Lynx team that will not be at full strength, as DiJonai Carrington, Minnesota’s trade deadline addition, will not only miss Game 1 but the remainder of the playoffs with a mid-foot sprain. Carrington also did not participate in any of the regular-season matchups between the two teams, as the fourth and final game was held on July 16, well before her acquisition.

But as Thomas noted, none of those games provide an adequate estimation of what might occur in Game 1, as well as throughout this series.

The first game, a 74-71 Lynx win on May 30, did not feature Thomas, Kahleah Copper or Natasha Mack for the Mercury, while Napheesa Collier was absent for the Lynx. A few days later, on June 3, Minnesota won commandingly, 88-65, as Collier had returned but Phoenix was still missing the same three starters. The teams then met again in quick succession in mid-July. Behind a then career-high 29 points from Thomas, the Mercury, sans Copper and Satou Sabally but now with DeWanna Bonner, defeated the Lynx 79-71. A week later on July 16, with Monique Akoa Makani joining Copper and Sabally on the Mercury sideline, the Lynx cruised to a 79-66 win.

Finally at full health, Phoenix might be playing their best ball of the season, especially on the defensive end. In the first-round, they had the defending champion New York Liberty in disarray, delivering a particularly impressive Game 2 destruction in Brooklyn. Across the three games, they registered a defensive rating of 84.6, the best mark of the first round—by far. In Game 2, their defensive rating was an air-tight 52.6.

Such an aggressive, connected and versatile defense will be needed to slow the Lynx’s league-best offense.

Although Minnesota staggered through stretches in their first-round series against the Golden State Valkyries, they exited the first round with the best offensive rating of all eight teams, establishing a mark of 114.3 that is superior to their regular-season rating of 109.5. At their best, no team can cook like the Lynx. In the fourth quarter of Game 2, when they completed their 17-point comeback, Minnesota’s offensive rating was 152.9, as they shot better than 73 percent from the field and 60 percent from 3.

So, if the Mercury defense and Lynx offense fight to a draw, what happens when they switch sides of the ball?

The Minnesota defense is, of course, also quite stingy, sporting the two Defensive Players of the Year in Collier and Alanna Smith as they were the league’s best defensive unit during the regular season. Offensively, Phoenix has been mostly average, ranking seventh in offense during the regular season and sixth in the playoffs. That suggests this series will turn on the Mercury’s ability to generate reliable offense.

Luckily, no player is better at creating something out of nothing than Thomas, who, as her history suggests, likes playing the Lynx. Not only did she drop 29 points on Minny earlier this season, but four of AT’s 24 career triple-doubles across the regular season and playoffs have come against Minnesota, including her first one as a member of the Connecticut Sun in 2022.

Thomas, as well as Bonner, also have a substantial playoff history against Minnesota. In 2023, as members of they Sun, they beat the Lynx in the first round in three games, with help from current Lynx Carrington and Natisha Hiedeman. Last season, Minnesota got revenge, eliminating the final iteration of the Thomas-Bonner Sun in the semifinals in five games. Across those eight playoff games, Thomas has unleashed all aspects of the full AT experience, from rather rare high-scoring games of 26 and 28 points to a game with five steals to multiple double-digit rebounding displays t0 an 11-assists night to contests where she lived at the foul line.

Minnesota, however, did succeed in inducing more turnovers than normal from Thomas, something that could be a disastrous for Phoenix in this series. The Mercury cannot afford to allow the Lynx to rack up easy transition scores off of live-ball giveaways; making them work against a set defense is a must.

Yet, possibly tilting things back in the Mercury’s favor, the Phoenix offensive attack, in contrast to those Connecticut teams, prioritizes a spaced floor, surrounding Thomas with 3-point shooters. While Minnesota never saw the full version of that this season, they did have notable trouble with the Atlanta Dream, losing the season series to another squad that emphasized offensive shooting and spacing.

When Game 1 tips off on Sunday afternoon, we’ll see if the top-of-the-league Lynx are ready for everything Thomas and full-strength Phoenix have in store for them.

No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx (0-0) vs. No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury (0-0)