WNBA odds, picks, props today: Best bets include Liberty-Valkyries spread pick, more

There are a pair of WNBA contests on Wednesday, and there are key injuries in both games. The New York Liberty will be without Jonquel Jones (ankle) again tonight at the Golden State Valkyries at 10 p.m. ET. New York has lost three of its past four, with the one win in that stretch being the only game with a fully healthy Jones. The Connecticut Sun are struggling mightily this season, and now they’re down Marina Mabrey for two to four weeks because of a knee injury. The 2-12 Sun will try and regroup against the Las Vegas Aces at 10 p.m. ET.

Looking to get in on WNBA betting at the best betting sites? How about the top WNBA player props? Let’s check out the best plays for Sunday, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today’s WNBA picks:

Valkyries +9.5 -106 (1 unit, FD)Kayla Thornton Over 14.5 points -110 (1 unit, FD)Thornton 20+ points +310 (0.5 units, FD)

This line has already dropped from Valkyries +9.5 to +8.5 back up to 9.5. I still see some value here because I think preseason priors have still been baked too much into this line.

There are a few key things to note about this matchup. You can make a strong case that Natalie Nakase is the best head coach in the WNBA given that she has the Valkyries playing way above their talent level, especially since multiple key players have left the team for EuroBasket. Additionally, Golden State, the WNBA’s latest expansion franchise, has already created one of the best home-court advantages in the league thanks to an excited fan base. The Valkyries have covered six home games in a row. 

As for the other side of the coin, the defending champs, the Liberty, haven’t looked like a championship-level team without Jonquel Jones. When Jones hasn’t played or left in the first quarter due to injury, New York is 3-3 straight up and also 1-5 against the spread. Jones re-injured her ankle last week in the Liberty’s game against the Phoenix Mercury, and she’s out for at least another few weeks. The Liberty missing Jones and fellow starter Leonie Fiebich (EuroBasket) has lowered the team’s ceiling dramatically, and I don’t think the market has adjusted far enough.

With all of that being said, I think any spread over two possessions (Liberty -6.5 or more) is too high for Wednesday’s matchup. The Liberty have the two top players in this game between Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, but Nakase has been stellar at scheming things up defensively, especially against star players. Look no further than two games ago when Caitlin Clark made just three of 14 shots against Golden State while giving up six turnovers.

Thornton has been the Valkyries’ top offensive player of late, and she’s scored at least 16 points in six consecutive games. It’s worth noting she’s reached that threshold despite not playing as many minutes the last two games due to foul trouble (20 minutes against the Fever) and a blowout win (22 minutes against the Sun). In those other four games, she played at least 35 minutes.

Thornton has been especially good at home, scoring 16.6 points per game there compared to 13.7 on the road. She did struggle in two games versus against the Liberty earlier this season (10 and 13 points), but the Liberty had stronger rosters in both games (Fiebich played both games, Jones played one) and the Valkyries had more scoring options (Janelle Salaun and Temi Fagbenle played both games, both out now due to EuroBasket). Additionally, both of those games were on the road. 

Thornton was also with the Liberty the last two years, so I’m sure she’d like to show that she’s capable of a better scoring performance than her first two outings against her former teammates. She’s scored at least 20 points in three of her past four home games and can certainly flirt with that number once again tonight.

Overall Record: 27-25, +7.61 units