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Sports bettors are also sports fans, thus acknowledging and analyzing storylines do help handicapping.
We have a classic case of this with Game 3 of a WNBA semifinal series, as the Las Vegas Aces visit the Indiana Fever as four-point favorites with a total of 162.5 points.
The series is tied at one game apiece after Las Vegas dominated Game 2 at home. However, it was Aces coach Becky Hammon’s postgame comments that provided betting angles for the next matchup.
She labeled the game’s physicality as “out of control” and criticized the officiating for allowing defenders to place two hands on a player without a whistle. In Game 2, there were 41 combined fouls, compared to 27 fouls in Game 1.
One theory is that Hammon is hoping to unlock Las Vegas star A’ja Wilson, who has been somewhat stymied by Indiana center Aliyah Boston. The MVP played well in Game 2 with 25 points in a blowout win, but was held to 22 points on 6-for-22 shooting in the Game 1 loss.
The first two games of the series have gone under the total, but I anticipate more points in Game 3 in large part due to the domino effect of Hammon’s comments. She is a savvy coach, having spent eight seasons as an assistant under the San Antonio Spurs’ Gregg Popovich, and knows her team will thrive with more fluidity.
The Aces turned their season around Aug. 3, when Hammon changed two players in her starting lineup. The team proceeded to close the regular season with 16 straight wins. Over that time, the Aces ranked eighth in pace with 92.35 combined possessions per game. However, that increased to 94.30 on the road.
Similarly, over that time span, the Fever ranked fifth with 93.92, which was consistent both at home and away. However, Indiana played with a much faster pace in the first half at 96.45 possessions. This makes sense, given that all their injuries have shortened their rotation.
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I am of the belief that Hammon’s preferred game flow is a fast-paced game where her team’s stamina and depth can shine in the second half. Thus, I think we have an advantage with the first half total of 79.5.
I have a 66-52-1 record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Over 79.5 points in the first half (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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