WNBA predictions, picks today: Wednesday’s best bets include Dream-Mercury player props

There is just one WNBA game on tonight’s slate, with the Atlanta Dream playing the second leg of a road back-to-back against the Phoenix Mercury at 10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. The Dream have lost three of four games without Rhyne Howard (knee)—who is out again tonight. 

If you’re interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Wednesday, July 23, then make sure to see today’s WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.

Today’s WNBA picks:

Allisha Gray Over 6.5 rebounds

Gray has been a staple for my WNBA best bets of late. Two games ago, we laddered Gray rebounds when her prop was 4.5. Last game, we laddered Gray rebounds when her prop was 5.5. We’ve made 3.6 units on those two performances, and I’m going back to the well again.

Basically, Gray rebounds have been a cash cow when teammate Rhyne Howard sits. Howard is out for the remainder of July with a knee injury. In four games without Howard, Gray has done the following: 11 rebounds in 40 minutes against the Storm, 8 rebounds in 38 minutes against the Fever, 7 rebounds in 26 minutes against the Sky and 8 rebounds in 36 minutes against the Aces.

When Howard has played, Gray averages 5.1 rebounds per game. In the four games Howard has missed, that number goes up to 8.5—and it could be higher considering she sat the final 12 minutes against the Sky (finished with seven rebounds) with the Dream up by 35+ in the third quarter. 

Sportsbooks aren’t dumb, as Gray’s rebounding prop opened at 6.5 against the Mercury. So unfortunately, there won’t be a ladder for this game because some of the value has been wiped. But Gray has gone Over 6.5 rebounds in every game with Howard out and the Mercury are a below-average rebounding team. Phoenix is eighth in rebounding percentage (48.9%) and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage (28.8%) — as Gray has done most of her damage with defensive rebounding.

Kahleah Copper Under 1.5 made 3-pointers

This is pretty close to a full-strength Mercury team, with just Monique Akoa Makani (8.6 PPG, 43.1% on 3-point attempts) out against the Dream due to a concussion. This is the first time that Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper will be playing with DeWanna Bonner since Bonner (13.3 PPG with Mercury) joined Phoenix three games ago.

The point is, there are a lot of mouths to feed now in Phoenix — Sabally, Copper, Bonner, Sami Whitcomb and Alyssa Thomas are all averaging double-digit points with the Mercury. There are now eight different Mercury players taking at least three 3-point attempts per game, led by Sabally at 6.1 and Whitcomb at 6.0.

Copper is tied for the third-most 3-point attempts per game on the Mercury at 4.8, along with Kitija Laksa. Her 3-point prop against the Dream is at 1.5, the same number as Whitcomb and Sabally (though the juice on Whitcomb and Sabally’s Overs are much higher). Copper has made at least two 3-pointers in five of her six games this season, landing at exactly two in four of them. But she’s been getting by on efficiency, not volume. She’s shooting 44.8% on 3-point attempts this season, which would be her highest mark since her rookie season (46.7%) — when she attempted one 3-pointer per game. Here are her 3-point percentages in seasons where she’s taken multiple 3-point attempts per game before 2025: 31.4%, 40.4%, 35.6%, 30.6% and 34.4%. 

Yes, Copper isn’t as much of a focal point of the offense since the Mercury have so many weapons, so she’s likely going to get better looks. I’m just not buying she’s a near-45% shooter from outside even with better looks, and she’s not taking a high number of 3-pointers either. 

This will be Copper’s first game since July 3 after being out with a hamstring injury, and before that, she missed the first month of the season after knee surgery. I think the Mercury will ease her back in tonight, and she’s going up against a Dream team that allows the fewest 3-point attempts per game in the WNBA. 

Overall record: 41-43, +5.83 units