WNBA: What must the Lynx, Mercury do to win Game 3?

In Game 1, the No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx dominated the No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury, 82-69. In Game 2 of their semifinal series, Phoenix had a historic comeback to win 89-83 in overtime. Now, the series shifts to Phoenix for Games 3 and 4 on Friday and Sunday (sorry Jonas Brothers).

The winner of Friday night’s Game 3, which will tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2), will be just one victory away from a WNBA Finals berth. Here’s what each team has to do to earn the result they desire:

What the Lynx must do to win

All year long, Minnesota has reigned supreme. The Lynx are the No. 1 seed and were undefeated in the playoffs until their epic collapse in Game 2. While blowing a 20-point lead was a shock, there were signs that something like that could happen. The Lynx fell behind a couple of times against the Valkyries, but were just so good that they could eventually show their class and win.

But, if you don’t close the door on the Mercury, they’ll make you play. Focus and full effort are hard to sustain for 40 minutes, but that’s the job. If the Lynx want to win on Friday, they must be defensively suffocating, dominate the glass and reduce turnovers, and when they get up by double figures, they must finish the job.

Offensively, the Lynx have done enough to win both games, so there is an excellent baseline there. Defensively, they must be sharper. They held Phoenix to 13 percent shooting from deep in Game 1, but in Game 2, the Mercury shot 40 percent from downtown. Minnesota doesn’t have to be as good as they were in Game 1 to win, but if they let Phoenix get comfortable on the perimeter, it’s going to be tough.

Individually, the core has been great for the Lynx. Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams have been stellar and will need to sustain this level of excellence the rest of the way.

What the Mercury must do to win

Talent-wise, the Lynx are the better team. But as Phoenix has demonstrated, they not only can win a game, but also this series. They just have less room for error and must play at their highest level.

For the Mercury that starts and ends with Alyssa Thomas. AT is averaging 18.5 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists in this series. That’s good enough to get it done.

Phoenix needs her to keep that up, especially when it comes to scoring. If they score 69 points like they did in Game 1, they won’t be winning again. Another factor in their sole loss in this series was rebounding. The Mercury lost the rebounding battle 42-35 in Game 1, while they grabbed just as many boards as the Lynx in Game 2.

Phoenix is running a tight ship with an eight-player rotation, so wherever they can get someone to outperform their regular production, it is needed. In Game 2, that honor went to Sami Whitcomb. She was sensational with three 3s and 13 pivotal points. Whitcomb doesn’t have to be that good again, but if she can hit some 3s, be a boost off the bench and keep defense honest, that’ll go a long way.

Satou Sabally is another player who has turned things up in this series. She had a team-high 24 points in Game 2. Last, but certainly not least, is Kahleah Copper. She suffered an injury in Game 2 and was limited to just eight points. Copper is a player who can play well beyond that, and she’ll have to if the Mercury want to win this series.

Game 3 will not be the end-all, be-all. But, Friday night’s result will determine which team is a game away from the Finals, and which is a game from the season ending.

No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx (1-1) vs. No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury (1-1)