WNBA: Will higher-seeded teams triumph in first-round Game 1s?

The 2024 WNBA playoffs kick off on Sunday, Sept. 22 with a quadruple header:

Here’s a run down of what to watch for in the four matchups:

No. 1-seed New York Liberty vs. No. 8-seed Atlanta Dream (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Season series: 3-1 Liberty

Head-to-head point differential: +33 Liberty

Liberty leaders vs. Dream: Breanna Stewart (20.0 points per game), Jonquel Jones (8.3 rebounds per game), Sabrina Ionescu (6.8 assists per game)

Dream leaders vs. Liberty: Allisha Gray (14.5 points per game), Tina Charles (9.3 rebounds per game), Jordin Canada (5.7 assists per game)

As Beckett Harrison expressed in his preview of the series, it’s hard to find an edge for Atlanta in this matchup. New York is a machine, equipped with a suite of highly-efficient options on the offensive end and supported by a solid defensive infrastructure. They also exemplify a team that is unburdened by a double-big alignment, as Beckett previously has postulated. The Dream, in contrast, struggle to run smoothly, lacking the consistency or cohesion required to test the Liberty.

No. 3-seed Connecticut Sun vs. No. 6-seed Indiana Fever (3 p.m. ET, ABC)

Season series: 3-1 Sun

Head-to-head point differential: +38 Sun

Sun leaders vs. Fever: DeWanna Bonner (18.0 points per game), Alyssa Thomas (12.0 rebounds per game), Thomas (8.8 assists per game)

Fever leaders vs. Sun: Caitlin Clark (16.5 points per game), Aliyah Boston (8.0 rebounds per game), Boston (4.3 assists per game)

In his preview of this series, Łukasz Muniowski suggested Indiana might need to carve out more time for Temi Fagbenle to compete with Connecticut, opting for a bigger lineup in order to slow down Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.

No. 2-seed Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 7-seed Phoenix Mercury (5 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Season series: 3-1 Lynx

Head-to-head point differential: +49 Lynx

Lynx leaders vs. Mercury: Napheesa Collier (17.3 points per game), Collier (11.3 rebounds per game), Alanna Smith and Courtney Williams (4.0 assists per game)

Mercury leaders vs. Lynx: Kahleah Copper (19.3 points per game), Natasha Mack (7.0 rebounds per game), Natasha Cloud (7.5 assists per game)

If Diana Taurasi’s final playoff run is not to end in a first-round loss, everything must go right for the Mercury, as Eric Nemchock outlined in his series preview.

No. 4-seed Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 5-seed Seattle Storm (10 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Season series: 3-1 Aces

Head-to-head point differential: +16 Aces

Aces leaders vs. Storm: A’ja Wilson (25.3 points per game), Wilson (11.8 rebounds per game), Chelsea Gray (6.0 assists per game)

Storm leaders vs. Aces: Jewell Loyd (18.0 points per game), Ezi Magbegor (12.7 rebounds per game), Skylar Diggins-Smith (7.5 assists per game)

Are the Storm forgotten contenders, capable of marshaling a Finals run? Zack Ward thinks so, citing the proven championship experience of Nneka Ogwumike and Jewell Loyd. However, as Edwin Garcia asserts in his series preview, the Aces have A’ja Wilson.