After a 40-game season, which featured an Olympic break, a historic rookie class, and a monumental season by the (should be) unanimous M’VP winner A’ja Wilson, eight teams have punched their respective tickets for the WNBA playoffs.
Can the New York Liberty win their first title in team history? Will the Aces be able to three-peat? Who can stop the red-hot Indiana Fever? Will a title be the perfect ending to Diana Taurasi’s career? Should the Lynx be the betting favorite?
There are a ton of storylines for the playoffs, and there’s a case to be made for each team winning the title.
But while there’s a case to be made for each team to win, there’s also a case against each team winning too.
Let’s break down each of the eight remaining squads and the case for them and against them standing tall at the end of October.
New York Liberty
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: The Liberty have been at the top or toward the top of the power rankings all season long. It makes sense, given their record and star-studded lineup. Last year, they made it to the WNBA Finals before losing to the Aces, but that was the first year that the star-laden team played together. It’s Year 2 of the Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot era in New York, and they have the depth – which was an early question for this team – to sustain any injuries or matchups that the playoffs throw at them.
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Kayla Thornton are two key pieces for New York as lockdown defenders, while rookie Leonie Fiebich has made a case for all-rookie first team with her play – much of it in relief of injuries throughout the season to key veterans.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: The league is so good right now, that they are looking to expand not just by two teams, but by four, with Portland being the latest announced to join in 2026. That said, there’s no easy matchup in the playoffs, and for the Liberty, a Round 2 matchup against either the Seattle Storm or Aces could be a nightmare.
The key to success: Jonquel Jones. When Jonquel Jones is on, the Liberty don’t lose, as they are undefeated since her arrival last year in games that Jones has recorded a double-double.
Minnesota Lynx
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: Is there a team as deep as the Lynx? I’m not so sure. Napheesa Collier would be an MVP candidate in any other season (and she should still be the runner-up this season), as she’s been dominant on both sides of the ball. Coming off a sub-.500 season a year ago, the ship has righted quickly in Minnesota. Kayla McBride is automatic from deep, and Courtney Williams has done a fantastic job setting the tone offensively for them. After handling the Liberty in the Commissioner’s Cup title game, they have shown they can beat whoever, whenever, wherever. They should be the betting favorites.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: The Lynx have brought back the lost art of the jump shot, as they rank dead last in field goals made from 0-10 feet in the league. It’s fine, because it works, and they are super efficient despite taking historically lower-percentage field goal attempts.
The key to success: Napheesa Collier. Minnesota is deep, but it’ll go as far as Phee takes it.
Connecticut Sun
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: The veteran Sun is in the convo every year, but they can’t get over the hump. The team that Stephanie White has this year feels different, the core starters bring a suffocating defensive approach with a slow pace to control the games. Alyssa Thomas is doing Alyssa Thomas things, while DeWanna Bonner shows no signs of slowing down. A healthy Brionna Jones and breakout seasons from DiJonai Carrington and Tyasha Harris have been crucial for the Sun’s success. Marina Mabrey has made all of the difference for them, presenting the only real deep threat for Connecticut outside of Harris.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: Connecticut has six players who average double figures in points per game, but outside of them, the depth is just fine.
The key to success: Brionna Jones. It’s hard to put into words just how important – and impressive – Jones has been for the Sun this year after her Achilles injury a season ago.
Las Vegas Aces
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: They are winners of back-to-back titles, and they have the best player on the planet coming off of the best regular season performance in the history of the league. Las Vegas has had their ups and downs this year, but when you get a team with A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Kelsey Plum in the playoffs, are you betting against them? The Aces remind me of the Miami Heat, as it’s not about the regular season with them, but about the playoffs, and even if they enter the series as the underdog, there’s the mental aspect of being there before that falls in their favor.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: We’ve seen the Point Gawd look like the Point Gawd of late, but there’s still a sense of Gray not being fully healthy. There’s also been a slight dip in Plum’s game this season, both offensively and defensively.
The key to success: Tiffany Hayes. The Core 4 will do what they do, but Hayes – and Sydney Colson’s defense – for the second unit will be key for the Aces. Tip came out of retirement just to play for the Aces, and she’s exceeded every and all expectations.
Seattle Storm
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: No team made a bigger offseason splash than the Seattle Storm, clearing way for Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike to join Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor to give Seattle a Big 4. If that wasn’t enough, Gabby Williams chose the Pacific Northwest to call her WNBA home following the Olympics. The starters can go unit-for-unit against any other team in the league, given the spacing, experience, and rim protection that they bring.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: Has the team been able to fully gel with Williams’ late arrival? The Storm are – as of Sept. 19 – 6-5 with Williams on the roster, and they are out of time to fully adjust.
The key to success: Defense. The Storm lead the league in blocks per game and steals per game while limiting turnovers offensively. That’ll be key against the Aces and beyond.
Indiana Fever
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: The Fever looked every bit of the part of a team that had the No. 1 pick in back-to-back seasons during the first 20 days of the season when they had 11 games during that stretch. It was absolutely brutal, and Indiana was trying to find itself and its rotation. Since then, it’s been one of the hottest teams in the league thanks to Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and Lexie Hull – the latter post-Olympics, especially.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: For as good as they have been, they are still going up against the veteran Connecticut team in the first round. Christie Sides has done a fantastic job in the second half of the season, but will she be able to make the right in-game adjustments during the playoffs, against these experienced teams?
The key to success: Aliyah Boston. The Fever are 11-5 when Boston scores at least 15 points. Establishing her presence early and often on the short pick-and-roll will be key for Indiana.
Phoenix Mercury
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: Veteran play. Every starter for the Mercury is at least 28 years old. Kahleah Copper is a menace offensively, and Natasha Cloud has added a lockdown defensive presence for Phoenix.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: Outside of the starters, they lack the depth needed for a playoff run. What’s more, while the experience of the Mercury helps in some aspects, it can also be a concern for the wheels falling off in an Olympic season with Copper, Brittney Griner, and Diana Taurasi having an extended workload from Paris on their bodies.
The key to success: Rebounding. The Mercury rank No. 11 in the league in offensive boards per game and rank dead last in defensive rebounding rate.
Atlanta Dream:
Why they’ll win the WNBA Finals: The Dream struggled to stay healthy all season. Whether it be starting point guard Jordin Canada missing half the season, Rhyne Howard’s ankle injury, or losing Cheyenne Parker-Tyus in the second half of the season – they just couldn’t get all of their bodies out there. When fully healthy, they have shown spurts of being able to take any team to the limit behind Howard, Allisha Gray, and the all-time leading rebounder in the WNBA and second all-time leading scorer, Tina Charles.
Why they won’t win the WNBA Finals: At the end of the day, the Atlanta is a 15-25 team that fought with the Chicago Sky and Washington Mystics – who started 0-12 before defeating Atlanta for their first win of the season – for the final playoff spot.
The key to success: Jordin Canada. If Jordin Canada were healthy all season, it would be a different story for them as far as potential playoff positioning. Having her healthy next season for the full year will make a world of difference for Atlanta.
