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As the back half of the NBA season comes to a close, true contenders for this year’s NBA championship are starting to emerge. After analyzing the top playoff teams’ trajectories, we identified four squads that seem to have what it takes to win it all, four more that we could see making a push and three teams that we don’t see the hype on.
Contenders:
Boston Celtics
Coming off a championship that was years in the making, the Boston Celtics sit at second in the Eastern Conference with a record of 50-19. The duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown has proven to be arguably the best in the league, with Tatum having an MVP-caliber year. Derrick White continues to bring two-way strength as one of the best guard defenders in the league, while also averaging 16.7 points per game (PPG). Jrue Holiday and Al Horford have played at high levels defensively and Kristaps Porziņģis brings the size the Celtics otherwise lack. The team also has the Sixth Man of the Year front-runner in Payton Pritchard, who recently set the NBA record for the most threes off the bench in one season. Their starting lineup plays sound, switchable defense and are scoring threats; they are the defending champs for a reason.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder are on pace to set the NBA record for point margin at +12.7, according to StatMuse. Pioneered by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — the NBA’s leading scorer at 33 PPG — and their league-best defense, the Thunder have all the tools to be a contending team. They have a superstar in Gilgeous-Alexander, strong supporting two-way stars in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren and an incredibly deep rotation that can play multiple positions, defend at a high level and punish opposing teams for open threes if they elect to double Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder’s lack of shot creation outside of Gilgeous-Alexander hurt them in last year’s playoffs, but the combination of their supporting cast’s growth and Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-deserving campaign make them a formidable side come May.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers are currently 12th all-time in NBA point margin at +10.9. They have a top-two offense in the league, and their frontcourt size of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will elevate their defensive ceiling come playoff time. In addition to superstar Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland has made significant playmaking contributions, Mobley has made a leap on both sides of the ball and bench pieces like Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill and Isaac Okoro continue to contribute. At the trade deadline, the Cavs addressed their only true weakness, the lack of an impact wing, by acquiring De’Andre Hunter from the Atlanta Hawks. With the Cavs, Hunter is averaging 14.3 PPG on 50/49/84 shooting splits from the field, 3-pointers and free throws, respectively. Depth is significantly less important in the playoffs, but the Cavaliers’ combination of backcourt playmaking, sheer size with defensive potential and lineup versatility makes them a contender.
Los Angeles Lakers
The trade deadline changed this entire team’s future. With two of the league’s top 10 players now on one team, the Los Angeles Lakers are an offensive powerhouse. They are well-coached by JJ Redick and have great leadership with LeBron James. Although they have a young team, their players are still relatively experienced, especially with new piece Luka Dončić leading the Mavericks to the finals last year and James’ dazzling decades-long resume. Dalton Knecht, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura play key parts in closing out games as well. The Lakers made the playoffs the last two years and have both the experience and players necessary to overcome the hump. The question is whether the young team can win close games down the stretch, especially with their lack of depth.
Brink:
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors have improved tremendously on the defensive side of the ball, especially with the addition of six-time all-star Jimmy Butler. Stephen Curry still dominates, despite often being double-teamed. Jonathan Kuminga has improved significantly on both ends of the ball, now averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.8 boards per game, and Draymond Green proves to still be the glue that continues to make the team relevant. They are 15-2 with Butler but face a rough road to the finals. Out of the potential first-round teams the Warriors could play as a current No. 6 seed, they match up poorly against both the Nuggets and the Grizzlies, not to mention the star-studded Thunder. It’s a path that would require streaky shooting, step-up performances from Buddy Hield, Butler and the Warriors’ overall lackluster bench and defensive intensity against the best offensive teams in the Western Conference.
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets have been marred by inconsistencies this year. Their defensive effort seems to vary every night, and they are 24th in points allowed. They also rank 27th in 3-pointers made per game, an issue that could arise come playoff time given the need for shot-making in the halfcourt. This can be overlooked in the regular season in favor of fastbreak points, but when the court shrinks and teams consistently double-team Nikola Jokić in the post, it’s an open question if the Nuggets have the shooters outside of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to knock down open 3-pointers. Having the best player in the world, Jokić, will always give the Nuggets a chance, but if an opponent exposes the Nuggets’ weaknesses by leaving shooters open and attacking their interior defense, the Nuggets could be an early playoff exit.
Milwaukee Bucks
Similar to the Nuggets, it is hard to count out a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Although the Milwaukee Bucks duo has yet to prove themselves together in the playoffs, they are both future hall-of-famers who put up 30 and 25 PPG respectively. Although the addition of Kyle Kuzma isn’t groundbreaking, he along with Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Gary Trent Jr. and Taurean Prince provide good options as role players. The team lacks intensity throughout the game defensively from time to time, however, and constant changing of offensive schemes has proved to hurt their chemistry down the stretch. However, there is too much talent on the team to not be nervous come playoffs. They are also in the weaker Eastern Conference where they could match up well in the first round against an inexperienced team like the Detroit Pistons, so anything is possible. Minnesota Timberwolves
Winners of eight straight overall and 13 straight with Julius Randle in the lineup, the Minnesota Timberwolves have finally found their footing following a tumultuous start after their major offseason dealing of Karl-Anthony Towns. The Wolves’ below-average offense raises questions, but their elite defense, star player in Anthony Edwards and success with Randle give this team a high ceiling. Additionally, the Timberwolves’ size and physicality match up well with the Western Conference’s best teams, going 2-2, 2-2 and 3-0 against the West’s top three seeds, respectively, so far this season. Despite being the No. 7 seed, if the Timberwolves can remain healthy, they can compete with any team and make a deep playoff run.
Pretenders:
New York Knicks
On paper, the New York Knicks look like a contender. They have a superstar in Jalen Brunson, who leads the league with 6 clutch PPG, they are a top three team in the Eastern Conference and they are sixth in the league in NET rating. However, against the Celtics, Thunder, Cavaliers and Lakers, the four contenders, the Knicks are a combined 0-9. The team’s second and third options, Towns and Mikal Bridges, see drastic point drops against those teams, signaling offensive struggles to come in the postseason. Additionally, the Knicks’ closing lineup includes Josh Hart, an issue recently exposed as teams have begun to guard him with their center. This allows opponents’ centers to roam in the paint, not worried about Hart’s presence on the perimeter and leaving him open to shoot, causing the Knicks to effectively play 5 on 4. Simultaneously, the Knicks’ clutch time offense is ranked in the bottom half in terms of field goal and 3-point percentages over the past month, when teams began employing this defensive strategy. Previously, the Knicks were second in the league in clutch time field goal percentage.
Houston Rockets
There is a lot to like about this young team, but the Houston Rockets are too inexperienced and not offensively gifted enough to make a true push. They are still missing a Robin figure for Jalen Green offensively. They have decent depth, but lack some size outside of Alperen Sengun, who is having a great year. If they went out and got Zach Lavine, De’aaron Fox, Butler or even Anthony Davis at the trade deadline, we’d look at this team differently, but they are still two to three years away from being taken seriously.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are arguably the deepest team in the NBA. Their three best players, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane only average 30, 29.4 and 31.6 minutes respectively, a testament to the Grizzlies’ bench production and versatile lineups. Offensively, the Grizzlies lead the league in PPG. However, the Grizzlies turn the ball over the second-most times per game, with four lottery teams rounding out the top five in that category. Morant’s reduced production and efficiency pose the question: Who will generate offense for the Grizzlies come playoff time? As good as Jackson Jr. is, he’s more of a two-way second option, with Bane a reliable third or fourth option. Whereas the Thunder, Celtics and Cavaliers match elite depth with superstar talents who can carry an offensive load (Gilgeous-Alexander, Tatum and Mitchell, respectively), the Grizzlies lack a true number-one option. This, combined with a high turnover rate that loses them so many possessions may hurt them in a playoff series.
The NBA playoffs are where legacies are made and where ghosts come back to haunt players. It has a different level of intensity and grit not always seen in the regular season. Narratives are both constructed and ripped apart. Cities come alive but may die just as quickly. It is the most exciting time of the year. For that reason, the crown is more open than we may think, so hold us accountable in June.
*All records and statistics are as of 3/16/25
