Max Boxing – Sub Lead – The Weighting Game

Canelo vs. Crawford Sept 13

We’re less than a month out from what will indeed be the biggest event of 2025 in boxing. I say ‘event’ because you never know if the actual fight can live up to the build-up and the expectations. 

Saul Canelo Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) is putting his collection of 168-pound belts up for grabs against undefeated Terence “Bud” Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) on September 13th at Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium.

While nobody is disputing the resumes or talent of either fighter, what does come up regularly is the question of size.

Crawford turned pro way back in 2008 as a junior welterweight, almost 30 pounds ago.

Canelo, for his part, has been punching for pay for 20 years after turning pro as a teenager in 2005 at welterweight. But he has been working the super middleweight circuit for the last 8 years.

Crawford ruled the welterweights for years before making the jump to junior middleweight last summer in a win that didn’t convince anyone he was all that comfortable at the weight.

While Canelo has looked like light heavyweight might be a bit too big for him (a win over past-his-prime Sergey Kovalev and a loss to Dmitrii Bivol), he has looked very strong at 168.

Crawford, who has only had 1 career assignment above welterweight, is essentially going from welterweight to super middleweight. That is a 21-pound jump for anyone keeping score.

Resumes

Crawford has been in some tough environments, like winning the title from Ricky Burns in Scotland for his 1st world title in 2014. He also made his 1st defence against power punching Yuriorkis Gamboa at home in Omaha just 3 months after capturing the world title. He has also looked very good in dismantling and stopping the likes of Kell Brook, Shawn Porter, and Errol Spence Jr.   

Alvarez has a who’s who list of champions from his numerous title defences over the last number of years. While he has been content to cruise to decisions lately, it should be noted his last 4 opponents (including Crawford) boast a combined record of 126-0. He has been a world champ for 14 years and boasts wins over Amir Khan, Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, and Gennadiy Golovkin, among others. His only losses in almost 70 fights are to elite champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. and bigger, stronger Dmitrii Bivol. Impressive, to say the least. 

Strengths

Crawford – Doggedly determined and tough. Has a legendary competitive streak and hates to lose. Believes in himself and isn’t intimidated by the jump in weight. Loyal to the core with the same team around him since his early days in Omaha, where he still lives. A slick boxer who can fight from both sides but probably does his best work from the left. Great footwork and won’t be an easy target for Alvarez. Decent power, but probably not his strength at the higher weight. Look for him to box and try to frustrate Alvarez. Great combination puncher. Tends to start fights, a little reserved, but needs to be busy and bank every round he can so he doesn’t have to chase a KO if he is behind. Has claimed that he will indeed be the stronger of the two come fight night. Overall, a phenomenal skillset.

Alvarez – Has been in huge fights before, so the event won’t rattle him. His obvious strength is his power, and does look to load up with big shots. He’ll try to time Crawford and catch him with a heavy counter (think Amir Khan win). Has a great chin, so I don’t think Crawford will be able to hurt him with just one punch. Appears very confident going into the fight (what fighter doesn’t?). He feels Crawford can’t hurt him and will be looking to trade. While I don’t think Crawford will run, I’d be surprised if he welcomed a slug-fest. Crawford will be smart and content to box and move from the southpaw stance so Canelo will have to cut off the ring and try to keep things in tight.

Concerns

Crawford – Size matters, and usually a good big man beats a good little man. Not a lot of room for error because one hard shot could spell trouble at this weight. He must be near perfect for 36 minutes.

Alvarez – Has to watch that he isn’t too overconfident because he feels he can pull out a win with one shot. He must land the perfect punch to get Crawford out, and that isn’t easy to do with an elite boxer like Bud. Has gone the distance in his last 7 bouts, and while very strong, and is effective with his aggression, but needs to fight with more urgency than he has of late. Can’t get lulled into cruise control as Crawford piles up points.     

Prediction

I usually suffer from slivers in this area from sitting on the fence. But, here we go. I think the fight will be tactical and might disappoint those looking for a war. I don’t see Alvarez stepping on the gas enough at this late stage of his career to demand a Hagler/Hearns-style brawl if his last few bouts are any indication. I can make a strong argument for both fighters having a formula to win, and can easily envision both scenarios come fight night. But, I like the elite-level boxing skills that Crawford brings to the table and I think that he’ll be able to stay locked in and disciplined with his game for all 12 rounds. He’ll have a few tense moments, and he has little room for error, but I think he can pull off the win and bring the belt home to Omaha. I know we’re still a month out, and I may be swayed, but right now…Terence “Bud” Crawford by close UD.