NCAAW: Should UCLA be on upset watch against UNC?

Thursday night’s WBCA Challenge in Las Vegas brings one of the more unassuming revenge games of the 2025-26 women’s college basketball season.

Yes, calendars are marked for MiLaysia Fulwiley’s first game against South Carolina. Everyone hopes the gods of March Madness will bless us with a showdown between TCU and Notre Dame. Seeing Oluchi Okananwa face Duke or Khamil Pierre meet Vanderbilt also would be delicious. The movement of the transfer portal era encourages fans to anticipate potential high-motivation matchups, where possible tensions emerge as transfers take on their old teammates.

So, what might Elina Aarnisalo, now a Tar Heel with No. 11 North Carolina, have in store for No. 3 UCLA and her former Bruin teammates (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)?

The 5-foot-10 guard who is a native of Finland spent her freshman season at UCLA, playing in all of the Bruins’ 37 games, including earning 10 starts. She averaged 5.1 points, 3.4 assists and 2.2 rebounds per game for the Bruins. One of her most impactful games came in UCLA’s upset of then-No. 1 South Carolina, when she helped pace the Bruins’ big win with 13 points.

Aarnisalo has started one of her two games in Carolina Blue. In the opener, a rout of NC Central, she got the start, scoring 13 points while adding three boards and three assists. The second game against Elon was a bit of a struggle for the sophomore, as she shot 1-for-9 from the field. Aarinsalo, however, upped her activity in other areas of the game, grabbing eight boards and snagging a pair of steals, in addition to tossing four assists. It’s impact in those hustle areas of the game, along with her offensive versatility, that should earn Aarnisalo the trust of UNC head coach Courtney Banghart.

And it was Aarnisalo’s trust in Banghart that led her to commit to the Tar Heels. Originally recruited by Banghart and UNC, Aarnisalo explained why, on the second time around, she chose Carolina, sharing with the Tar Heel Tribune:

Knowing Coach Banghart already from my high school recruitment, that kind of pushed me towards UNC. knew what kind of impact she could have as a head coach. Then, once I visited and met the players, I knew this was the right place. Meeting the coaches in person, meeting the players, that made my decision.

In contrast, she didn’t offer much fodder when discussing why she decided to depart a Final Four program in UCLA, simply saying, “I was just looking for a different kind of environment. You could argue a different kind of role in a team, too.”

Aarnisalo’s season of experience with the Bruins also equipped her with insight into what it takes to reach the sport’s final stage, and she believes the Tar Heels have the potential to make a March push. As she told the Tar Heel Tribune:

I see we have every piece that we need. I see players who can play one-on-one defense. I see how we can create offense in different ways. We can use our bigs—they move really well, they can shoot from 3, they can post up. We have guards who can shoot, players who can create off the dribble. We just have to put it together and start playing for each other.

A matchup against her old team that is fresh off a top-10 win and widely expected to return to the Final Four, or go even further, will reveal whether the Heels belongs within the sport’s top tier.

The starting point for UNC will be slowing Lauren Betts. The Tar Heels don’t have the personnel to matchup with the 6-foot-7 senior center. North Carolina’s only true center, 6-foot-5 sophomore Blanca Thomas, has yet to play this season, seemingly due to an undisclosed injury.

Yet, Carolina is a team that consistently wins with defense.

Can they compensate for a lack size by effectively bothering Betts by invading her space to make her uncomfortable, preventing her from establishing deep post position, fronting her to deny easy catches, swiping at the ball if she brings it too low and baiting her into misreads when she passes out of double teams? That’s a lot!

Plus, as proven in their first three wins, UCLA is happy to allow other players to inflict damage on opponents. Against Oklahoma, Betts didn’t have her offensive touch, but the shotmaking of senior guards Gianna Kneepkens and Angela Dugalić carried the Bruins. UCLA’s array of offensive options—and that’s even with Sienna Betts still sidelined to start her college career—means dragging them into the mud, North Carolina’s most likely path to victory, will be difficult.

That UNC also lacks the experience of UCLA presents another challenge. The Tar Heels’ roster features a combined 10 freshmen and sophomores, compared to just four juniors and seniors.

Thus far, Banghart has relied on a mix of her seasoned players, with senior guard Indya Nivar leading the Heels’ balanced scoring attack and senior forward Nyla Harris serving as Carolina’s most efficient source of scoring, and young talents, headlined by redshirt sophomore forward Ciera Toomey’s 10.5-point and 11.5-rebound double-double average and Aarnisalo’s 3.5 assists. Defensively, Nivar has tallied five steals per game, while Toomey is swatting three shots per contest. Freshman guard Nyla Brooks also has impressed, filling up the box score in her more than 25 minutes per game.

Aarnisalo is right: The Tar Heels, despite limited experience, have the pieces to both be, as well as beat, a great team.

Can it all come together against her former team on Thursday night in Vegas?