NCAAW: What are the chances of a No. 1-seed upset in the Sweet 16?

As we enter another weekend of the NCAA Tournament, brackets have been busted, upsets have occurred and 16 teams remain.

So far, all the No. 1 seeds are still in the game, and none of them have been tested yet. Through eight contests, the top seeds have a margin of victory of 45.8 points.

However, that dominance will soon come to an end. Other high seeds are still in the tournament, and eventually, they’ll be an upset or the No. 1 seeds will face each other in the Final Four.

The question is: Who will fall first?

Don’t expect UNC to upset UConn

As THE undefeated team, UConn is sitting pretty right now.

They are facing No. 4-seed North Carolina, a good program that has struggled against the best teams. In the games they’ve played against top-12 opponents this season, they are 1-4.

Considering that they’ll be taking on the best team in the nation, UNC is likely unable to prevent UConn from advancing. After that, the Huskies will play the winner of No. 6-seed Notre Dame vs. No. 2-seed Vanderbilt.

Upsets happen, but with Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong leading the way, picking UConn to lose before the other No. 1 seeds is not a wise decision.

South Carolina seems to be gaining momentum

South Carolina has looked unstoppable this month. They had six players in double figures and made No. 9-seed USC look like a Division II team in the second round.

Joyce Edwards continues to lead the Gamecocks, and while Oklahoma is a formidable opponent, as South Carolina very much understands after losing to the Sooners during the regular season, the Gamecocks likely will use that lesson to advance and play either No. 3-seed TCU or No. 10-seed Virginia in the Elite Eight.

Considering TCU barely escaped against No. 6-seed Washington and UVA is the ultimate Cinderella, it’s very likely that South Carolina will make its seventh Final Four appearance.

If they do, they’ll take on the winner of the Fort Worth bracket, which is predicted to be UConn. If you think all the No. 1 seeds survive their regions, then this is where one would have to fall. Many in that scenario would pick UConn over South Carolina, but anything can happen in a single elimination game.

Can we be confident in UCLA?

The Bruins have won, but not in as dominant a fashion as their peers. They beat Oklahoma State by just 19 points. In their region, the four highest-seeded teams are still alive—the only region for which this is true.

And with No. 2-ssed LSU in UCLA’s region, along with red-hot and No. 3-seed Duke, that makes UCLA’s path, on paper, harder than the other teams. First up, the have to take care of a No. 4-seed Minnesota team that arrives in the Sweet 16 with feel-good momentum.

Also, because the Bruins’ best player, Lauren Betts, is a big, their offense can sometimes be a bit neutralized if the backcourt players struggle to get her the ball.

It’s still likely that UCLA advances to the Final Four, but if they don’t, it’ll be because another team had a player go off and the Bruins’ backcourt had a poor performance.

Does Texas really have what it takes?

Last, but certainly not least, is Texas.

They have veteran leadership thanks to Rori Harmon, and Madison Booker is their bucket-getter, averaging 19.3 points per game.

The Longhorns play No. 5-seed Kentucky next, a team they beat by 11 points during the SEC regular season, and have either No. 3-seed Louisville or No. 2-seed Michigan waiting for them if they advance. Those are two tough teams to have to beat to advance to the Final Four, and that might be a risky game for Texas.

If you aren’t a believer in the Longhorns, that’d be a place to predict an upset.

Which No. 1 seed do you think will fall first?

The table is set, but who do you think will be the first to head home between UConn, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas?

Will all the No. 1 seeds make it to Phoenix? Which one are you most skeptical of, and have you changed your mind during the tournament? Share your takes, whether from the head or the heart, in the comments.