The second half of the 2024 Major League Baseball season starts on Friday, and we have 10 predictions (five for the National League, five for the American League) for what could be ahead in terms of player milestones, team success and roster moves.
All stats, records and standings mentioned are through the All-Star break.
National League predictions
1. Shohei Ohtani wins the batting title. One individual award Ohtani has not yet won is a batting title, and that is going to change this season. He is 10 points behind Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich (.326), but Yelich has not hit that well in years and is due for a regression in the second half (.379 average on balls in play is not sustainable). Ohtani will take advantage.
2. Paul Skenes wins the Cy Young Award. Skenes has already become one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues with a 1.90 ERA just one year after being drafted No. 1 overall. He has already started the All-Star Game and is the lead front-runner for Rookie of the Year, but why stop there? If he continues at his current pace, the Cy Young will be his as well.
3. Dodgers trade for Mason Miller. Injuries have limited the Dodgers pitching staff all season, and lately, their bullpen has been a mess in trying to lock down games. It is World-Series-or-bust for them, meaning they are going to push all of their chips to the center of the table and get baseball’s most dominant relief pitcher.
4. Elly De La Cruz steals 80 bases. It has been nearly 40 years since a player swiped 80 bases in a season (Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman in 1988), but the Reds’ shortstop is going to reach that number. He needs 34 over the Reds’ remaining 65 games to get there.
5. Atlanta adds a bat. The season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna Jr. has left a big void in a suddenly mediocre Braves lineup (19th in MLB in runs scored). They will address that before August by swinging a major trade for one of the outfielders available (Luis Robert Jr., Jazz Chisholm, Taylor Ward, Jesse Winker).
American League Predictions
6. Houston continues its ALCS streak. Not only will the Astros catch the Seattle Mariners for the top spot in the American League West, they will carry that momentum into the playoffs, where they reach the ALCS for an incredible eighth consecutive year. They are not going away as quickly as anybody wants.
7. Chicago White Sox trade everybody. There are not many clear sellers going into this year’s trade deadline, and the White Sox are going to use that to their advantage to get everything they can for their players. Outfielder Luis Robert Jr. and starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde are all going to go in one of the biggest fire sales we have seen in years to restock their farm system.
8. Baltimore Orioles get Tarik Skubal. The Tigers are under no pressure to trade Skubal (the AL ERA leader) given how many years of control he still has. But it only takes one offer to make a team jump. The Baltimore Orioles are the type of team that have the prospect capital to match the Tigers’ price, they have already shown the aggressiveness to go after a big arm (trading for Corbin Burnes in the offseason) and they have the “win-now” mentality to do it. They will do it.
9. Aaron Judge is unanimous MVP winner. The AL MVP debate is regarded as a three-player race between Judge, teammate Juan Soto and Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson. It will not actually be that close. Judge’s commanding lead in home runs, slugging percentage and OPS will be too much for the voters to ignore, especially if he hits 60 home runs again and the Yankees win the AL East.
10. Twins trade for Brent Rooker. The Twins are in the thick of the AL playoff race and have a need for another big bat. They may not pay the price for somebody like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Luis Robert Jr., but Rooker seems like an attainable slugger who can improve their lineup.
