Sarah Barshop
Nick Wagoner
Nick Wagoner
ESPN Staff Writer
Nick Wagoner is an NFL reporter at ESPN. Nick has covered the San Francisco 49ers and the NFL at ESPN since 2016, having previously covered the St. Louis Rams for 12 years, including three years (2013 to 2015) at ESPN. In his 10 years with the company, Nick has led ESPN’s coverage of the Niners’ 2019 Super Bowl run, Colin Kaepernick’s protest, the Rams making Michael Sam the first openly gay player drafted to the NFL, Sam’s subsequent pursuit of a roster spot and the team’s relocation and stadium saga. You can follow Nick via Twitter @nwagoner
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The Los Angeles Rams’ 12-6 victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night propelled them closer to the top of the NFC West and a playoff spot.
The Rams entered the game with a 35% chance to make the playoffs and a 32% chance to win the division, according to ESPN Analytics. Those figures went up significantly after the victory: The Rams’ playoff chances now sit at 52% and winning the division at 49% entering the weekend.
And perhaps most importantly, the Rams continue to control their destiny with three games left. The Rams end their season at the New York Jets and home to the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.
The Rams have made the playoffs in five of the previous seven seasons under head coach Sean McVay, including a trip to Super Bowl LIII and a victory in Super Bowl LVI.
At 8-6, the Rams now sit half a game back of the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks.
But if the Rams are to make a playoff run, it will require some consistency from their offense, an area that has been a struggle.
Just four days after scoring a season-high 44 points against the Buffalo Bills — a team that had already clinched its division — Los Angeles struggled to move the ball on a rainy night.
In the first half, the Rams had 89 yards of offense, which is a season low. They picked it up in the second half, finishing with 302 yards in the victory.
QB breakdown: Quarterback Matthew Stafford entered Thursday having four straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and no interceptions, which is tied for the longest active streak in the NFL and is tied for the longest streak of his career. He did not continue that streak Thursday, completing 16 of 27 passes for 160 yards in a game with no touchdowns on either side.
Eye-popping stat: For the first time since McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams failed to get a first down on their first four offensive drives, according to ESPN Research. A week after scoring a season-high 44 points, Los Angeles finished the game with only 14 first downs.
Describe the game in two words: Slow start. Against the 49ers, the Rams failed to score in the first quarter for the ninth time this season. According to ESPN Research, that is tied with the Bears for second in the NFL. In the extremely wet conditions, they failed to find ways to consistently establish the run or get the ball to wide receivers in space, putting additional pressure on the defense. — Sarah Barshop
Next game: at Jets (1 p.m. ET, Sunday, Dec. 22)
For the better part of the past five years, whenever the 49ers needed a galvanizing win to push them forward to a postseason appearance, they’ve often earned them against the Rams.
On paper, Thursday night set up perfectly for the Niners to write another successful chapter in their rivalry with Los Angeles and breathe life into their fledgling playoff hopes. The return of linebacker Dre Greenlaw and defensive end Nick Bosa from injury figured to offer an additional spark for a team that has spent the past two weeks speaking of the desperation it needs to make a postseason push.
As has been the story of the season in San Francisco, none of that was enough. For a team that has won its share of old-fashioned NFC West slugfests, Thursday’s defeat hammered home the point that the Niners are no longer kings of the division.
Although it was only three points, the Niners blew a fourth-quarter lead of three or more points against an NFC West opponent for the fourth time this season. It makes them the first team to do that since the 2000 New England Patriots and effectively kills San Francisco’s hope of a third straight division crown and a playoff berth.
Sure, there are distant mathematical methods for the Niners to still sneak in, but at 6-8 overall and 1-4 in the division, they’d have to win out. Considering they haven’t won more than two games in a row this season, it’s difficult to imagine that’s even possible.
The next four weeks should only reveal more about where the Niners are headed in 2025.
Promising trend: In a tight, low-scoring game such as Thursday’s, special teams figured to play a prominent role in the outcome. Though the Niners entered ranked 32nd in the league in expected points added via special teams, there were no fingers to be pointed at that unit against the Rams.
Kicker Jake Moody made his field goal attempts, punter Pat O’Donnell was solid, and punt returner Jacob Cowing averaged 10.2 yards per return. It wasn’t a perfect performance (they had a pair of 5-yard penalties on punts) but the Niners generally had no back-breaking mistakes in the third phase. That’s enough to qualify.
QB breakdown: Brock Purdy was mostly solid despite the rain doing him no favors, but the decision to throw deep that turned into an interception was the biggest mistake of the game.
Although Purdy has struggled in poor weather conditions in other games, his numbers Thursday should have been better than they were. Receivers Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel Sr. combined for multiple drops, including a potential touchdown to Samuel on a third-quarter slant over the middle. Purdy finished 14-of-31 for 142 yards with an interception.
Pivotal play: With a little more than 5 minutes to go, the Niners faced second-and-10 at the Rams’ 33. With Moody already converting a pair of long field goals, that was field goal range.
But quarterback Purdy lost sight of the situation and attempted to force a deep ball to wideout Jennings deep down the right sideline. Rams cornerback Darious Williams picked it off in the end zone for a touchback to kill the drive. — Nick Wagoner
Next game: at Dolphins (4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, Dec. 22)
