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Justin Verlander’s 20th big league season hasn’t been one of his standout years, as he now has a 4.53 ERA over 99 1/3 innings following today’s tough outing (five earned runs on 11 hits and a walk over five innings) against the last-place Nationals. Between these numbers and the 5.48 ERA Verlander posted over 90 1/3 frames during his injury-marred 2024 season, it is easy to speculate that time has finally caught up to the future Hall-of-Famer.
However, Verlander wants to keep going, telling the San Francisco Standard’s John Shea that he wants to return in 2026. This isn’t exactly new news since Verlander has previously indicated that he would like to pitch into his mid-40’s, and he turns 43 in February. However, he did attach some injury-related caveats to his plans, which makes sense given the health concerns Verlander has dealt with in recent years.
“At this point in my career, if something goes really wrong, I’m not going to rehab a surgery or anything,” Verlander said. “I always understand that it could be it, but I think physically, I’ve shown some good health this season. As I’ve been on the mound, things have started to get better and better. To me, that’s a good sign with all the work I put in after my nerve injury last year, which notoriously takes a long time. The ball’s rolling in the right direction, and I would like to continue pitching. You never know. It’s a fickle game too, but I think the stuff is still there.”
The Giants signed Verlander to a one-year, $15MM free agent deal last winter, as San Francisco chose to invest in Verlander’s history rather than his more immediate struggles in 2024. The right-hander had a 4.33 ERA over his first 52 innings before a pectoral strain cost him about a month of playing time from mid-May to mid-June. Verlander’s overall production has been about the same since returning from the 15-day IL, though it seemed like he was turning a corner by posting a 2.66 ERA in the 23 2/3 innings prior to today’s clunker against Washington.
While a lost month isn’t insignificant, it is understandable that Verlander is a lot more confident about his health now than he was last year, when he was limited by both early-season shoulder problems and then his nerve injury in his neck. Verlander admitted last September that he probably tried to return too quickly from his neck problem, and his lack of results led the Astros to leave him off their playoff roster. Comparatively speaking, a pec strain is a much less serious type of injury, and if Verlander can get through the remainder of the 2025 campaign in good shape, it will line him up well to explore a return for next year.
Another one-year contract seems inevitable given Verlander’s age, and what could be two years of unimpressive numbers if he can’t get things turned around during the rest of the Giants’ schedule. Beyond just the bottom-line ERA, Verlander’s Statcast numbers have a troubling amount of blue shade, with below-average strikeout and walk rates. The latter statistic is notable since Verlander hadn’t posted a below-average walk rate since 2017 — he had a very impressive 5.3 BB% during the 2018-24 seasons.
As much as front offices are more concerned with future performance rather than past results, Verlander’s track record is hard to ignore. He was still posting elite numbers as recently as 2022, when he won his third career Cy Young Award to help lead the Astros to a World Series title (for the second ring of Verlander’s career). The righty followed that year up with a less-elite but still impressive 2023 season that saw Verlander deliver a 3.22 ERA across 162 1/3 innings with the Mets and Astros, though his strikeout rate dropped off dramatically this year and has yet to recover.
Chances are another team will take a shot at signing Verlander to see if he can recapture a bit of his old magic in his age-43 season. Playing for a contender will surely be at the top of Verlander’s priority list, so a return to San Francisco could hinge on whether or not the former ace thinks the Giants are ready to turn the corner and make a playoff push in 2026. The Giants were reportedly open to trading Verlander before the deadline, as part of the team’s desire to move some short-term veteran contracts.
There is no doubt Verlander will be heading to Cooperstown when he eventually hangs up the cleats, but sticking around for another season will push him even further up several all-time leaderboards. In recording six strikeouts against the Nationals today, Verlander now has 3503 career Ks, making him the tenth pitcher in MLB history to top the 3500-strikeout threshold.
