UFC 303 predictions – MMA Fighting

Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka are operating it again before anticipated.

No, Conor McGregor isn’t returning Saturday, however followers have had loads of time to return to grips with that, and due to Dana White and firm’s matchmaking wizardry, UFC 303 ended up with a important occasion with far better stakes as Pereira defends his mild heavyweight title in a rematch in opposition to Prochazka. Their first combat thrilled for so long as it lasted, although a barely early stoppage left us wanting extra. Now, we get the reprise simply seven months later.

Not solely that, we’ve additionally been served an unexpectedly pleasant co-main, with Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes stepping as much as change Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jamahal Hill vs. Carlos Ulberg Anthony Smith vs. Carlos Ulberg … uh, to interchange a light-weight heavyweight co-main occasion. There have been some regrettable pre-fight shenanigans, as Ortega reportedly struggled to make 145, precipitating a transfer as much as light-weight for each males, however on paper this matchup continues to be a banger.

In different important card motion, Anthony Smith fights Roman Dolidze in an mild heavyweight bout that got here out of nowhere, current bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva appears to be like to fend off Macy Chiasson, and Ian Machado Garry takes on longtime Bellator welterweight contender Michael “Venom” Web page.

What: UFC 303

The place: T-Cell Enviornment in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, June 29. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET, adopted by a four-fight preliminary card at 8 p.m. ET, all on ESPN and ESPN+. The five-fight important card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is accessible completely on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

(Numbers in parentheses point out standing in MMA Combating’s World Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Jiri Prochazka (2)

When these two first tussled, I confidently picked Alex Pereira due to the one-touch knockout potential and, marvel of wonders, I used to be right even when he didn’t precisely flatten Jiri Prochazka. That was very a lot a “vibes” decide, as Jed Meshew would say, and so is that this: Prochazka evens the rating.

Pereira and Prochazka’s types aren’t remotely alike and but by some means they’re so evenly matched. I actually consider that if these two ran it again 100 instances, neither man would win a major majority of the contests. Such is their stage of hanging and their potential to finish any combat in a flash.

There are clear benefits Pereira has, which we noticed play out within the first combat. Pereira took benefit of Prochazka’s poor leg kick protection and when he discovered a gap, he rifled in a type of KO punches that he’s well-known for. However let’s not overlook that Prochazka had his moments too. He’s a gifted striker able to producing energy from unconventional angles, so nobody would have been stunned if the ending sequence was reversed. They shouldn’t be stunned if it occurs Saturday both.

It’s a must to be a particular form of psycho to volunteer to step right into a cage with Pereira greater than as soon as, however that’s precisely what Prochazka is and he’ll profit from having confronted “Poatan” as soon as already. As reductive because it sounds, Prochazka has a stronger sense now of Pereira’s pace and energy, and that familiarity could possibly be what redeems him within the rematch.

In a recreation of inches, Prochazka makes it 1-1 with a knockout of his personal.

Choose: Prochazka

Brian Ortega (5) vs. Diego Lopes (14)

There are some ugly shades of final week’s Kelvin Gastelum debacle within the Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes weight class change, so I can perceive why followers aren’t too happy with Mr. Ortega proper now. This case feels much less sinister as a result of it feels like Ortega may need tried to make weight this week (emphasis on “may need”) however when his crew realized he couldn’t, they reached out to Lopes’ crew late Thursday night to request a light-weight bout.

However, Ortega needed to have recognized it might be tough to hit 145 on quick discover particularly since he’d been gearing up for a possible light-weight transfer earlier than getting the decision to face Lopes. So they need to have negotiated a unique poundage then, not lower than 48 hours earlier than combat evening. Unhealthy look.

How this impacts the fighters tonight is anybody’s guess, although it definitely can’t harm Ortega and I can’t think about it’s good for Lopes. Apparently Lopes was on schedule to make 145 earlier than getting informed round 3:30 a.m. he’d be competing at light-weight as a substitute. So he could possibly be just a little drained, which is a matter while you’re dealing with an opponent who’s recognized for being further harmful within the third spherical.

Grappling-wise, Lopes is a match for Ortega on the bottom, a lot of this battle ought to come right down to profitable scrambles and holding positions. I like Lopes extra on the ft from a technical standpoint, although Ortega has ending energy in his strikes.

Final week, I went with Gastelum, however solely as a result of that may have been my decide with or with out the load snafu. I’m sticking with that logic right here as I used to be leaning Lopes for the unique featherweight reserving and don’t assume the late change spoils his probabilities that a lot.

Choose: Lopes

Anthony Smith (13) vs. Roman Dolidze

Mutant matchup time!

That’s proper, Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree had been initially set for the UFC 303 co-main occasion till Rountree obtained a suspension for a constructive drug take a look at, then Carlos Ulberg was referred to as in to combat Hill, however Hill withdrew resulting from a knee harm, then Anthony Smith stepped in to combat Ulberg, after which Ulberg bowed out with an harm. All of these matchups had title contender implications within the skinny mild heavyweight division.

The identical can’t be mentioned for the combat we ended up with, Smith vs. Roman Dolidze, although credit score to Dolidze for stepping up right here and doing so after competing at 185 kilos in his previous two fights.

I’m fascinated by how Dolidze does again at 205 as a result of he was really undefeated in that weight class earlier than making the drop, which was in all probability a clever transfer to keep away from future matchups with a lot bigger opponents. Sadly for the Georgian, we noticed his ceiling at 185 as he misplaced to a few ranked fighters and now finally ends up again at mild heavyweight anyway.

Smith isn’t significantly massive for the division, although he ought to have the power benefit right here having made the load class his residence. He’ll look to grapple with Dolidze and put on him down early whereas on the lookout for openings to land his personal photographs later. Stylistically, this combat is made for a end, and I favor the extra battle-tested Smith to beat Dolidze to the punch and turn into the primary fighter to place him away inside the gap.

Choose: Smith

Mayra Bueno Silva (3, P4P-16) vs. Macy Chiasson (8)

Macy Chiasson is all the time this near a breakthrough and he or she will get one other alternative to claim herself as a prime contender when she fights Mayra Bueno Silva.

Prepared for extra storytime? Silva’s inventory has fluctuated wildly over the previous yr as she gained our hearts by ending Holly Holm’s reign of terror, then had that outcome erased when she popped for ADHD treatment, then ended up getting a shot on the vacant bantamweight title anyway, after which placed on an totally forgettable efficiency in a loss to Raquel Pennington. Suffice to say, she’s not precisely an amazing favourite right here regardless of the quantity subsequent to her title.

Chiasson is so spectacular at her finest and girls’s 135 is in such dire want of contemporary blood that it’s simple to root for her. Nevertheless, it’s been discouraging to see her wrestle with the size and lose fights to the higher echelon of the division, which is the place Silva presently resides. She has the bodily instruments and expertise now to recover from the hump. She simply has to show it.

I’ve been fooled by Chiasson earlier than, however I’m going out on a limb right here and predicting that UFC 303 is the beginning of one thing huge for her. Chiasson by resolution.

Choose: Chiasson

Ian Machado Garry (8) vs. Michael Web page (T13)

Brace yourselves. This combat would possibly suck.

I notice that’s unkind, however this model matchup doesn’t scream barnburner to me. Ian Machado Garry and Michael Web page are extremely expert and no stranger to knockouts, however they’re additionally good and unlikely to power the motion if there’s the slightest probability that it offers their opponent an edge. Prefer it or not, that is going to be a chess match.

Who blinks first? My guess is Web page. The youthful Garry tasks to have extra pep in his step and if it goes to the judges, he’ll get credit score for the uncommon situations the place he pushes ahead and lets his fingers go. Web page has been concerned in some gnarly cut up choices in his day, so let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

Nothing can be funnier than Web page unleashing one in every of his highlight-reel strategies and making Garry go viral, nevertheless it’s quite a bit to ask for. So I’ve Garry profitable a tepid three-rounder on the scorecards.

Choose: Garry

Preliminaries

Joe Pyfer def. Marc-Andre Barriault

Cub Swanson def. Andre Fili

Charles Jourdain def. Jean Silva

Payton Talbott def. Yanis Ghemmouri

Gillian Robertson (13) def. Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Martin Buday def. Andrei Arlovski

Carlos Hernandez def. Rei Tsuruya

Ricky Simon def. Vinicius Oliveira