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Unrivaled: 1-on-1 Tournament first round analysis and predictions

February 11, 2026
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Unrivaled: 1-on-1 Tournament first round analysis and predictions
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The second edition of Unrivaled’s 1-on-1 Tournament tips off on Wednesday night, which, after a few late-breaking adjustments, will feature 12 first-round matchups. The action begins at 7 p.m. ET on truTV.

As a quick reminder, the first player to score 11 points wins. If no player reaches 11 points after the 10-minute running clock expires, the leading player gets the win. The shot clock is seven seconds.

Here’s our analysis and predictions of all 12 first-round matchups, plus two already-set second-round showdowns. Share your predictions in the comments below. (To do so, make sure you have an account.)

No. 4-seed Courtney Williams vs. No. 5-seed Veronica Burton.
Getty Images

No. 1-seed Kelsey Mitchell vs. No. 8 seed Rachel Banham (7:45 p.m. ET)

Rachel Banham can get hot from 3. Kelsey Mitchell can get hot from 3, and get to the basket whenever she wants. The widely-agreed upon toughest cover in women’s pro basketball, Mitchell should quickly make it clear why she was the No. 1 seed in Pod A, and is a favorite to capture the $200K.

Prediction: Kelsey Mitchell

No. 4-seed Courtney Williams vs. No. 5-seed Veronica Burton (9:30 p.m. ET)

Veronica Burton is underrated as a No. 5 seed. While Courtney Williams will try to get to her spots, rise up and cash in on middies, Burton, an All-WNBA defender, can prevent her from executing her preferred process. Burton also can apply her physicality when she has the ball, bullying Williams as she drives to basket.

Prediction: Veronica Burton

No. 2-seed Kelsey Plum vs. No. 7-seed Natisha Hiedeman (Second Round)

After the elimination of the first-round matchup between No. 3-seed Skylar Diggins and No. 6-seed Jordin Canada, Kelsey Plum and Natisha Hiedeman will now receive first-round byes and meet on Friday night during the second round.

Like the other Kelsey, Plum is the heavy favorite. Hiedeman does have some sizzle, with crafty handles and the ability to drain difficult 3s. Plum, however, has the full arsenal of pull-ups, stop-and-pop middies and dynamic drives. Plus, KP can also use her strength advantage to pound T in the post.

No. 8-seed Kate Martin vs. No. 1-seed Paige Bueckers.

No. 8-seed Kate Martin vs. No. 1-seed Paige Bueckers.
Getty Images

No. 1-seed Paige Bueckers vs. No. 8-seed Kate Martin (8:45 p.m. ET)

This might not be a total breeze for Paige Bueckers, but it would be surprising if her Breeze teammate, Kate Martin, makes PB sweat for the first-round win. A masterful scorer at all three levels, Paige’s bag is too deep for Martin.

Prediction: Paige Bueckers

No. 5-seed Brittney Sykes vs. No. 4-seed Arike Ogunbowale (8 p.m. ET)

This is one of the tougher calls of the first round. It’s the physicality of Brittney Sykes vs. the craftiness of Arike Ogunbowale. On defense, Slim surely will try to make Arike as uncomfortable as possible; however, Arike’s history includes enough evidence to suggest that she might just make the shots anyways. Although not a noted defender, Ogunbowale’s also not going to be overwhelmed by Sykes, who likely will try to bully her way to the basket.

Prediction: Arike Ogunbowale

No. 3-seed Jackie Young vs. No. 6-seed Aziaha James (9:15 p.m. ET)

Originally scheduled to face off against former Las Vegas Aces teammate Tiffany Hayes, Jackie Young is now up against development pool player Aziaha James.

James got of her first official action of the season last Friday night, showing off some of her scoring craft for Lunar Owls. But, Zaza likely will have a hard time evading Jackie, who has the combined strength and quickness necessary to stymy James’ smoothest moves. Those attributes also will advantage Young on the offensive end, allowing her punish James around the basket. An excellent shooter, Young can also just drop in middies or triples on demand.

No. 2-seed Chelsea Gray vs. No. 7-seed Natasha Cloud (7 p.m. ET)

Upset alert! Yes, Chelsea Gray is the Point Gawd. But, she’s earned that moniker because of how she expertly balances her playmaking and shotmaking abilities. In this setting, the passing threat is eliminated, allowing Natasha Cloud to hound Gray into tough shots. Chelsea certainly can make them anyways. Yet, Tash can too!

Prediction: Natasha Cloud

No. 6-seed Sonia Citron vs. No. 3-seed Marina Mabrey.

No. 6-seed Sonia Citron vs. No. 3-seed Marina Mabrey.
Getty Images

No. 1-seed Allisha Gray vs. No. 8-seed Saniya Rivers (Second Round)

With the first-round matchup between No. 4-seed Kahleah Copper and No. 5-seed Rickea Jackson cancelled, Allisha Gray and Saniya Rivers will both advance to the second round, setting them up for a Friday night face off.

Gray has not been shy about letting everyone know she’s motivated by the money. With a $200K bonus in her sights, expect her to be ready to apply all her talents on the way to victory. She’ll put her head down for strong drives to the basket. She’ll pull up and drain 3s. She’ll defend with aggression. She’ll crash the glass for critical rebounds. Saniya Rivers, however, is a tough No. 8-seed. With elite defensive tools, Niya can make Lish work for every single point. And if her jumper is falling, an upset could be in order.

No. 3-seed Marina Mabrey vs. No. 6-seed Sonia Citron (7:30 p.m. ET)

It’s an all-Irish affair between Notre Dame alums Marina Mabrey and Sonia Citron. Outside of their shared collegiate ties, differences define to the two. Marina will step on the court smoldering, ready to deploy her deep bag of handles and shotmaking diversity. Soni, in contrast, will exude a quiet cam. But, the younger Irish shouldn’t be underestimated. Although less dynamic with the ball in her hands, Citron is a three-level scoring threat. She’s also the superior defender, capable of causing a crashout or two from Mabrey.

No. 2-seed Rhyne Howard vs. No. 7-seed Rae Burrell (8:30 p.m. ET)

Similar to the Irish-vs.-Irish matchup, the head-to-head between two-season Vinyl teammates is, otherwise, about their differences. Rae Burrell is chaos; Rhyne Howard is cool. Don’t be shocked it Sweet Baby Rae’s excess of energy—from bold shots to wild drives to skying rebounds—takes her to an early lead before Rhyne turns up her intensity, applying the full extent of her talent to pull away for the win.

No. 6-seed Shakira Austin vs. No. 3-seed Dearica Hamby.

No. 6-seed Shakira Austin vs. No. 3-seed Dearica Hamby.
Getty Images

No. 1-seed Breanna Stewart vs. No. 8-seed Li Yueru (7:15 p.m. ET)

It would be quite funny if Breanna Stewart, widely considered one of the greatest players in women’s basketball history, once again fell in the first round . And Lisa Leslie calls Li Yueru “Li Buckets” for a reason; Li certainly could swish a couple of 3s and have Stewart on the ropes. However, Stewie is likely unamused by the idea of a repeat of last season’s stunner. She’s out for revenge.

Prediction: Breanna Stewart

No. 4-seed Aliyah Boston vs. No. 5-seed Alyssa Thomas (9:45 p.m. ET)

The originally-schedule Royal Rumble between Aliyah Boston and Alyssa Thomas instead has become a South Carolina showdown, with development pool player Laeticia Amihere assuming Thomas’ spot.

Amihere, yet to see any 3×3 action, consistently impresses with her athleticism and effort, but Boston is just better, and she should exit this matchup with fewer battle scars than she would have accumulated against AT. Offensively, Boston can score in a multitude of ways, besting Amihere with power in the post or skill from the perimeter. On defense, AB’s length, smarts and discipline will eliminate any easy opportunities for LA.

Prediction: Aliyah Boston

No. 3-seed Dearica Hamby vs. No. 6-seed Shakira Austin (9 p.m. ET)

After beating now-Rose teammate Chelsea Gray in the first round of last year’s 1-on-1 Tournament, Shakira Austin declared herself a “shifty big.” Kira with the shifts should score another first-round upset, this time over Dearica Hamby. Last Saturday’s game between Rose and Vinyl already showed that Austin’s length can give Hamby tons of trouble, as Shakira swatted Dearica’s shot five times! Unless Hamby can find her stroke from the midrange or behind the arc, Austin’s size and athleticism will prove too overwhelming.

Prediction: Shakira Austin

No. 2-seed Aaliyah Edwards vs. No. 7-seed Dominique Malonga (8:15 p.m. ET)

Is it disrespectful to predict that the defending runner-up is going down in the first round? Last year, Aaliyah Edwards benefitted from a size advantage over most of her opponents as she advanced to the final. (In her epic opening win over Stewie, she enjoyed an outlier 3-point shooting performance.) Her superior size made her high-effort, physical style of play more effective.

Dominique Malonga, of course, is 6-foot-6. She not only can reject Edwards’ around-the-basket attempts, but Dom also can prevent AE from even getting there by using her length to deny drives. On offense, Malonga’s long strides can take her right to the basket, plus she can stroke it from behind the arc.

Prediction: Dominque Malonga



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